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Detecting unemployment hysteresis: A simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching

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  • Klinger, Sabine
  • Weber, Enzo

Abstract

We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for analysing hysteresis effects, featuring trend-cycle decomposition, identification of spillovers between the components and asymmetry over the business cycle. The decades-long upward trend in German unemployment is fully explained by hysteresis. The Great Recession was well absorbed because both hysteresis and structural unemployment were substantially reduced after institutional reforms. In contrast, U.S. unemployment was not driven by hysteresis effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Detecting unemployment hysteresis: A simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 115-118.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:144:y:2016:i:c:p:115-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.04.027
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    Cited by:

    1. Enzo Weber, 2015. "The Labour Market in Germany: Reforms, Recession and Robustness," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 461-472, December.
    2. James Morley & Irina B Panovska, 2016. "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?," Discussion Papers 2016-12, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    3. Pikoko, Vuyokazi & Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Is there hysteresis in South African unemployment? Evidence from the post-recessionary period," MPRA Paper 83962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," IAB Discussion Paper 201723, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Gehrke, Britta & Hochmuth, Brigitte, 2017. "Counteracting unemployment in crises : non-linear effects of short-time work policy," IAB Discussion Paper 201727, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hysteresis; Structural unemployment; Business cycle; Unobserved components; Markov switching;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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