IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v102y2021ics0264999321001735.html

Labour market miracle, productivity debacle: Measuring the effects of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change

Author

Listed:
  • Hutter, Christian
  • Weber, Enzo

Abstract

This paper examines the role of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change for productivity and employment. Thereby, we explore the puzzling macro development in Germany, witnessing job miracle and productivity debacle in parallel. In the literature, skill-biased technical change (SBTC) is known as an important driving factor for labour markets. We measure SBTC using comprehensive micro data and construct a structural macroeconometric framework identified by long-run restrictions. The results show that weaker SBTC explains 69 percent of the productivity slowdown since the early 2000s. Skill-biased technology shocks have a negative and skill-neutral technology shocks a positive hours effect. Twenty-five percent of the hours upswing since 2005 can be explained by reduced pressure from SBTC. Moreover, we analyse routine-biased technical change (RBTC) and find productivity and hours effects comparable to SBTC. However, only the latter can explain the job miracle – productivity debacle puzzle, since RBTC does not flatten substantially in the 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2021. "Labour market miracle, productivity debacle: Measuring the effects of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:102:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321001735
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105584
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999321001735
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105584?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
    2. Pi, Jiancai & Zhang, Pengqing, 2018. "Skill-biased technological change and wage inequality in developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 347-362.
    3. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    4. repec:iab:iabfme:200502(en is not listed on IDEAS
    5. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    6. Barro, Robert J, 1999. "Notes on Growth Accounting," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 119-137, June.
    7. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June.
    8. Jung, Sungmoon & Lee, Jeong-Dong & Hwang, Won-Sik & Yeo, Yeongjun, 2017. "Growth versus equity: A CGE analysis for effects of factor-biased technical progress on economic growth and employment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 424-438.
    9. Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Demand Side Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 60-65, May.
    10. Angrist, Joshua D, 1995. "The Economic Returns to Schooling in the West Bank and Gaza Strip," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1065-1087, December.
    11. Sushanta K. MALLICK & Ricardo M. SOUSA, 2017. "The skill premium effect of technological change: New evidence from United States manufacturing," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 156(1), pages 113-131, March.
    12. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2006. "The Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 189-194, May.
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-031 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Carbonero, Francesco. & Ernst, Ekkehard & Weber, Enzo., 2018. "Robots worldwide the impact of automation on employment and trade," ILO Working Papers 995008793402676, International Labour Organization.
    15. Enzo Weber, 2015. "The Labour Market in Germany: Reforms, Recession and Robustness," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 461-472, December.
    16. Marouani, Mohamed A. & Nilsson, Björn, 2016. "The labor market effects of skill-biased technological change in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 55-75.
    17. Sabine Klinger & Enzo Weber, 2016. "Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 877-894, December.
    18. repec:iab:iabfme:201412(en is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Krause, Michael U. & Uhlig, Harald, 2012. "Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 64-79.
    20. Christian Dustmann & Bernd Fitzenberger & Uta Sch?nberg & Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2014. "From Sick Man of Europe to Economic Superstar: Germany's Resurgent Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 167-188, Winter.
    21. Charles L. Evans & David A. Marshall, 2009. "Fundamental Economic Shocks and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1515-1555, December.
    22. Almut Balleer & Thijs van Rens, 2013. "Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1222-1237, October.
    23. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
    24. Wang, Jun & Hu, Yong & Zhang, Zhiming, 2021. "Skill-biased technological change and labor market polarization in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    25. Paul Beaudry & Mark Doms & Ethan Lewis, 2010. "Should the Personal Computer Be Considered a Technological Revolution? Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(5), pages 988-1036.
    26. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    27. Gino Gancia & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2009. "Technological Change and the Wealth of Nations," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 93-120, May.
    28. Gartner, Hermann, 2005. "The imputation of wages above the contribution limit with the German IAB employment sample," FDZ Methodenreport 200502_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    29. Yeongjun Yeo & Sungmoon Jung & Kiyoon Shin & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2017. "Growth versus equity: A CGE analysis for macroeconomic policy mix for the sustainable economic growth," EcoMod2017 10412, EcoMod.
    30. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 273-335.
    31. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    32. Dengler, Katharina & Matthes, Britta & Paulus, Wiebke, 2014. "Berufliche Tasks auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt : eine alternative Messung auf Basis einer Expertendatenbank (Occupational Tasks in the German Labour Market : an alternative measurement on the basis o," FDZ Methodenreport 201412_de, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    33. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, January.
    34. Yona Rubinstein & Daniel Tsiddon, 2004. "Coping with Technological Change: The Role of Ability in Making Inequality so Persistent," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 305-346, September.
    35. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 7-72, March.
    36. Hutter, Christian & Klinger, Sabine & Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "Which factors are behind Germany's labour market upswing?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201920, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    37. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Detecting unemployment hysteresis: A simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 115-118.
    38. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 664-701, December.
    39. Christian Dustmann & Costas Meghir, 2005. "Wages, Experience and Seniority," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 77-108.
    40. Dengler, Katharina & Matthes, Britta & Paulus, Wiebke, 2014. "Occupational Tasks in the German Labour Market : an alternative measurement on the basis of an expert database," FDZ Methodenreport 201412_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    41. Francesco Carbonero & Christian Offermanns & Enzo Weber, 2017. "The Trend in Labour Income Share: the Role of Technological Change and Imperfect Labour Markets," Working Papers 173, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    42. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Do Technology Shocks Drive Hours Up Or Down? A Little Evidence From An Agnostic Procedure," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 478-488, September.
    43. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2004. "The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: Evidence Based on Direct Measures of Technology," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 381-395, 04/05.
    44. Matthias Weiss & Alfred Garloff, 2009. "Skill-biased technological change and endogenous benefits: the dynamics of unemployment and wage inequality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(7), pages 811-821.
    45. Carbonero, Francesco & Offermanns, Christian J. & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "The fall of the labour income share: the role of technological change and imperfect labour markets," IAB-Discussion Paper 201728, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    46. Mark P. Moore & Priya Ranjan, 2005. "Globalisation vs Skill-Biased Technological Change: Implications for Unemployment and Wage Inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 391-422, April.
    47. Bound, John & Johnson, George, 1992. "Changes in the Structure of Wages in the 1980's: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 371-392, June.
    48. Sabine Klinger & Thomas Rothe, 2012. "The Impact of Labour Market Reforms and Economic Performance on the Matching of the Short‐term and the Long‐term Unemployed," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(1), pages 90-114, February.
    49. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zuazu-Bermejo, Izaskun, 2022. "Robots and women in manufacturing employment," ifso working paper series 19, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socioeconomics (ifso).
    2. Christian Hutter & Francesco Carbonero & Sabine Klinger & Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2022. "Which factors were behind Germany's labour market upswing? A data‐driven approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1052-1076, October.
    3. Feng, Suling & Zhang, Rong & Di, Danyang & Li, Guoxiang, 2024. "Does digital transformation promote global value chain upgrading? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Ulrike Unterhofer & Conny Wunsch, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Active Labour Market Policies: A Novel Instrumental Variables Approach," Papers 2211.12437, arXiv.org.
    5. Agus Salim & Jun Wen & Anas Usman Bello & Firsty Ramadhona Amalia Lubis & Rifki Khoirudin & Uswatun Khasanah & Lestari Sukarniati & Muhammad Safar Nasir, 2024. "Does information and communication technology improve labor productivity? Recent evidence from the Southeast Asian emerging economies," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), March.
    6. Santos, Anabela Marques & Barbero, Javier & Salotti, Simone & Conte, Andrea, 2023. "Job creation and destruction in the digital age: Assessing heterogeneous effects across European Union countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Lehmann, Robert & Zarges, Lara, 2025. "What drives German trend output growth? A sectoral view," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. Robert Lehmann & Lara Zarges, 2024. "What Drives German Trend Output Growth? A Sectoral View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11089, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2019. "A note on the effects of skill-biased technical change on productivity flattening," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 772-784.
    2. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Labour market effects of wage inequality and skill-biased technical change in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 201705, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Hutter, Christian & Klinger, Sabine & Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "Which factors are behind Germany's labour market upswing?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201920, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "The effects of skill-biased technical change on productivity flattening and hours worked," IAB-Discussion Paper 201732, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Christian Hutter & Francesco Carbonero & Sabine Klinger & Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2022. "Which factors were behind Germany's labour market upswing? A data‐driven approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1052-1076, October.
    6. Ariell Reshef, 2013. "Is Technological Change Biased Towards the Unskilled in Services? An Empirical Investigation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 312-331, April.
    7. Mario Reinhold & Stephan Thomsen, 2017. "The changing situation of labor market entrants in Germany [Die veränderliche Situation für Berufseinsteiger in Deutschland]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 50(1), pages 161-174, August.
    8. David J. Deming, 2017. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1593-1640.
    9. Seele, Stefanie & Burda, Michael, 2016. "No Role for the Hartz Reforms? Demand and Supply Factors in the German Labor Market, 1993-2014," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145650, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. David Hémous & Morten Olsen, 2022. "The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 179-223, January.
    11. Thomsen, Stephan L, 2018. "Die Rolle der Computerisierung und Digitalisierung für Beschäftigung und Einkommen," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-645, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    12. Lankisch, Clemens & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2019. "How can robots affect wage inequality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 161-169.
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-010 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Wenchao Jin, 2022. "Occupational polarisation and endogenous task-biased technical change," Working Paper Series 0622, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    15. Michael Stops, 2016. "Revisiting German labour market reform effects—a panel data analysis for occupational labour markets," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-43, December.
    16. Eisenbarth, Anthony & Chen, Zhou Fu, 2022. "The evolution of wage inequality within local U.S. labor markets," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 56, pages 1-2.
    17. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2020. "GDP-employment decoupling in Germany," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-98.
    18. Niklas Engbom & Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Ms. Faezeh Raei, 2015. "The German Labor Market Reforms and Post-Unemployment Earnings," IMF Working Papers 2015/162, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Thor Berger & Carl Benedikt Frey, 2016. "Structural Transformation in the OECD: Digitalisation, Deindustrialisation and the Future of Work," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    20. Janssen, Simon & Mohrenweiser, Jens, 2018. "The Shelf Life of Incumbent Workers during Accelerating Technological Change: Evidence from a Training Regulation Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 11312, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano & Silvio Traverso & Enrico Tundis, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," DEM Working Papers 2021/06, Department of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:102:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321001735. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.