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Detecting unemployment hysteresis : a simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching

Author

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  • Klinger, Sabine

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; IOS Regensburg ; University of Regensburg)

Abstract

"We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for the analysis of hysteresis effects. Our model unifies the ingredients of trend-cycle decomposition, identification of spillovers between the components and asymmetry over the business cycle. Employing the model for Germany and the U.S. over 55 years, we find that the decades-long upward trend in German unemployment is fully explained by hysteresis. The Great Recession was well absorbed because both hysteresis effects and structural unemployment were substantially reduced after institutional reforms. In contrast, U.S. unemployment did not evolve according to hysteresis, not even during the Great Recession." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "Detecting unemployment hysteresis : a simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching," IAB-Discussion Paper 201528, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201528
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    3. Oladapo Gbenga Awolaja & OlaOluwa Simon Yaya & Ahamuefula Ephraim Ogbonna & Solomon Onuche Joseph & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Unemployment hysteresis in Middle East and North Africa countries: panel SUR-based unit root test with a Fourier function," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 318-334, July.
    4. Wolter, Marc Ingo & Mönnig, Anke & Maier, Tobias & Schneemann, Christian & Steeg, Stefanie & Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2021. "Langfristige Folgen der Covid-19-Pandemie für Wirtschaft, Branchen und Berufe," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202102, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2018. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 18-40.
    6. Silke Anger & Malte Sandner & Alexander M. Danzer & Axel Plünnecke & Olaf Köller & Enzo Weber & Samuel Mühlemann & Harald Pfeifer & Bernhard Wittek, 2020. "School Closures, Lack of Apprenticeships, No Jobs: Generation without a Future?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(09), pages 03-24, September.
    7. Kruppe, Thomas & Mühlhan, Jannek & Weber, Enzo & Wiemers, Jürgen, 2019. "Gesamtfiskalische Wirkungen von Weiterbildungsförderung: Öffentliche Ausgaben generieren hohe Rückflüsse," IAB-Kurzbericht 201908, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Robert Mudida, 2019. "Hysteresis of unemployment rates in Africa: new findings from Fourier ADF test," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(6), pages 2781-2795, November.
    9. Britta Gehrke & Brigitte Hochmuth, 2021. "Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non‐Linear Effects of Short‐Time Work Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 144-183, January.
    10. Vuyokazi Pikoko & Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Is There Hysteresis in South African Unemployment? Evidence from the Post-Recessionary Period," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 15(3), pages 365-387, JUNE.
    11. Iman Cheratian & Saleh Goltabar & Luis A. Gil-Alaña, 2023. "The unemployment hysteresis by territory, gender, and age groups in Iran," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, February.
    12. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Corona-Krise: die transformative Rezession [Corona Crisis: Transformative Recession]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(6), pages 429-431, June.
    13. Enzo Weber & Holger Schäfer & Jörg Schmidt & Annelie Buntenbach & Alexander Spermann, 2017. "Is "Full Employment" a Realistic Target or an Illusion?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(16), pages 03-15, August.
    14. Enzo Weber, 2015. "The Labour Market in Germany: Reforms, Recession and Robustness," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 461-472, December.
    15. Marianna Oliskevych & Iryna Lukianenko, 2020. "European unemployment nonlinear dynamics over the business cycles: Markov switching approach," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 22(4), pages 375-401.
    16. Sabine Klinger & Anvar Musayev & Jean-Marc Natal & Enzo Weber, 2019. "Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany," IMF Working Papers 2019/301, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2021. "Labour market miracle, productivity debacle: Measuring the effects of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; USA ; Hysterese ; Arbeitslosigkeitsentwicklung ; internationaler Vergleich ; Konjunkturzyklus ; Rezession ; strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; 1960-2015;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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