IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bay/rdwiwi/31751.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Klinger, Sabine
  • Weber, Enzo

Abstract

This paper investigates the productivity puzzle in Germany. We focus on the time-varying relationship between German output and employment growth, in particular their decoupling in recent years. We estimate a correlated unobserved components model that allows for both persistent and cyclical time variation in the employment impact of GDP as well as an autonomous employment component capturing other factors than real output. As one result, we measure a permanent decline in GDP impact on employment as well as pronounced effects of the autonomous employment component in the recent years. The development of the estimated impact parameters depends on structural change, but also on labour availability and business expectations. Beyond GDP, a high labour supply, tightness as well as moderate wages and working time reductions boosted employment growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:31751
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://epub.uni-regensburg.de/31751/1/Decoupling.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald Bachmann & Michael C. Burda, 2010. "Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence and Labor Market Dynamics in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(1), pages 37-59, February.
    2. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, September.
    3. Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2012. "Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 399-418.
    4. Emrah Ismail Cevik & Sel Dibooglu & Salih Barişik, 2013. "Asymmetry in the Unemployment–Output Relationship Over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Transition Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(4), pages 557-581, December.
    5. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Jeffrey R. Campbell, 2000. "Aggregate Employment Fluctuations with Microeconomic Asymmetries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1323-1345, December.
    6. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
    7. Tara M. Sinclair, 2009. "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 529-542, March.
    8. Ronald Bachmann & Michael C. Burda, 2010. "Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence and Labor Market Dynamics in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(1), pages 37-59, February.
    9. Barnett, Alina & Batten, Sandra & Chiu, Adrian & Franklin, Jeremy & Sebastia-Barriel, Maria, 2014. "The UK productivity puzzle," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 114-128.
    10. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    11. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 1999. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations: Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 317-334, August.
    12. João Paulo Pessoa & John Van Reenen, 2014. "The UK Productivity and Jobs Puzzle: Does the Answer Lie in Wage Flexibility?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 433-452, May.
    13. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2013. "Unemployment in the Great Recession," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 385-403, July.
    14. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2012. "Exogenous versus Endogenous Separation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 68-93, October.
    15. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    16. Paramsothy Silvapulle & Imad Moosa & Mervyn Silvapulle, 2004. "Asymmetry in Okun's law," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 353-374, May.
    17. Rui M. Pereira, 2013. "Okun's Law across the Business Cycle and during the Great Recession: A Markov Switching Analysis," Working Papers 139, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    18. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    19. Paul Gregg & Stephen Machin & Mariña Fernández‐Salgado, 2014. "Real Wages and Unemployment in the Big Squeeze," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 408-432, May.
    20. Samuel Bentolila & Giuseppe Bertola, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad is Eurosclerosis?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402.
    21. Mary C Daly & Elliot M Marks, 2014. "The Labor Market in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 149-155, July.
    22. Lucchetta, Marcella & Paradiso, Antonio, 2014. "Sluggish US employment recovery after the Great Recession: Cyclical or structural factors?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 109-112.
    23. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Working Papers 2013/042, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Tucci, Marco P., 1995. "Time-varying parameters: a critical introduction," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 237-260, June.
    25. Sabine Klinger & Enzo Weber, 2016. "Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 877-894, December.
    26. Holmes, Mark J. & Silverstone, Brian, 2006. "Okun's law, asymmetries and jobless recoveries in the United States: A Markov-switching approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 293-299, August.
    27. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
    28. Christian Dustmann & Bernd Fitzenberger & Uta Sch?nberg & Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2014. "From Sick Man of Europe to Economic Superstar: Germany's Resurgent Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 167-188, Winter.
    29. Sabine Klinger & Thomas Rothe, 2012. "The Impact of Labour Market Reforms and Economic Performance on the Matching of the Short‐term and the Long‐term Unemployed," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(1), pages 90-114, February.
    30. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2012. "The Asymmetric Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 208-221, February.
    31. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 664-701, December.
    32. Brian Silverstone & Richard Harris, 2001. "Testing for asymmetry in Okun's law: A cross-country comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(2), pages 1-13.
    33. Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-445, Oct.-Dec..
    34. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 664-701, December.
    35. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    36. Horning, Bruce C, 1994. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(1), pages 87-100, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2019. "The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-208.
    2. Enzo Weber, 2015. "The Labour Market in Germany: Reforms, Recession and Robustness," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 461-472, December.
    3. Susanne Wanger & Roland Weigand & Ines Zapf, 2016. "Measuring hours worked in Germany – Contents, data and methodological essentials of the IAB working time measurement concept [Die Berechnung der geleisteten Arbeitsstunden in Deutschland – Inhalte,," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 49(3), pages 213-238, November.
    4. Robert Lehmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Zur Prognosegüte der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stundenproduktivität," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(22), pages 57-61, November.
    5. Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2017. "The German labor market in the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," IAB Discussion Paper 201714, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Wolter, Marc Ingo & Mönnig, Anke & Hummel, Markus & Schneemann, Christian & Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd & Helmrich, Robert & Maier, Tobias & Neuber-Pohl, Caroline, 2015. "Industry 4.0 and the consequences for labour market and economy : scenario calculations in line with the BIBB-IAB qualifications and occupational field projections (Industrie 4.0 und die Folgen für Ar," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201508_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Labour market effects of wage inequality and skill-biased technical change in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201705, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2020. "GDP-employment decoupling in Germany," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-98.
    2. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "GDP-Employment decoupling and the slow-down of productivity growth in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201912, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Sabine Klinger & Enzo Weber, 2016. "Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 877-894, December.
    4. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components: The impact of labour market reforms in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100499, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Michael Stops, 2016. "Revisiting German labour market reform effects—a panel data analysis for occupational labour markets," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-43, December.
    6. Hutter, Christian & Klinger, Sabine & Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "Which factors are behind Germany's labour market upswing?," IAB Discussion Paper 201920, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    8. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Launov, Andrey & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2018. "The Fall in German Unemployment: A Flow Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 11442, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Launov, Andrey & Wälde, Klaus, 2016. "The employment effect of reforming a public employment agency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 140-164.
    10. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2018. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 18-40.
    11. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Detecting unemployment hysteresis: A simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 115-118.
    12. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Launov, Andrey & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2021. "The fall in german unemployment: A flow analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Niklas Engbom & Enrica Detragiache & Faezeh Raei, 2015. "The German Labor Market Reforms and Post-Unemployment Earnings," IMF Working Papers 2015/162, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Rui Pereira, 2014. "Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
    15. Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2019. "The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-208.
    16. Lea Immel, 2021. "The Impact of Labor Market Reforms on Income Inequality: Evidence from the German Hartz Reforms," ifo Working Paper Series 347, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    17. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie & Vierke, Hauke, 2016. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 179-208.
    18. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2017. "Did Okun’s law die after the Great Recession?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 216-226, October.
    19. Beissinger, Thomas & Chusseau, Nathalie & Hellier, Joël, 2015. "Offshoring and Labour Market Reforms: Modelling the German Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 8920, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Rui M. Pereira, 2013. "Okun's Law across the Business Cycle and during the Great Recession: A Markov Switching Analysis," Working Papers 139, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    decoupling; productivity puzzle; unobserved components; time-varying coefficient; Verdoorn´s law;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:31751. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gernot Deinzer). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wfregde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.