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Zur Prognosegüte der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stundenproduktivität

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  • Robert Lehmann
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Das ifo Institut hat in den vergangenen Jahren die Zuwachsrate der Stundenproduktivität überschätzt. Der wesentliche Grund hierfür sind zu pessimistische Erwerbstätigenprognosen. Mögliche Erklärungsansätze sind strukturelle, von der Konjunktur unabhängige Veränderungen in der deutschen Volkswirtschaft, die in den ökonometrischen Konjunktur- bzw. Prognosemodellen nicht oder nur unzureichend berücksichtigt wurden. Die möglichen Erklärungsansätze dürften auch für andere Prognoseinstitutionen gelten, da auch die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, der Sachverständigenrat und die Europäische Kommission systematisch zu hohe Produktivitätsprognosen abgaben.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Zur Prognosegüte der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stundenproduktivität," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(22), pages 57-61, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:22:p:57-61
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steffen Henzel & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "The Ifo Employment Barometer and the German Labour Market," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(15), pages 35-40, August.
    2. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Hermann Gartner & Sabine Klinger, 2010. "Verbesserte Institutionen für den Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirtschaftskrise," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 90(11), pages 728-734, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & S. Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & F, 2017. "ifo Economic Forecast 2017/2018: Germany’s Economy Is Strong and Stable," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(12), pages 30-83, June.
    2. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Johanna Garnitz & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Rei, 2016. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2016–2018: Germany’s Robust Economy Faces a Year of Uncertain International Economic Policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(24), pages 28-73, December.
    3. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Rad, 2017. "ifo Economic Forecast 2017–2019: German Economy on Track to Boom," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(24), pages 28-81, December.
    4. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Anna-Pauliina, 2019. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2019: Deutsche Konjunktur ohne Schwung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(12), pages 25-78, June.
    5. Niels Gillmann & Robert Lehmann & Jannik A. Nauerth & Joachim Ragnitz & Julia Sonnenburg & Michael Weber & Jannik André Nauerth, 2019. "Wachstum und Produktivität 2035 – Innovations- und Produktivitätslücken auf Ebene der Bundesländer," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 84.
    6. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Jochen Güntner & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Magnus Reif & Ra, 2018. "ifo Economic Forecast Summer 2018: Storm Clouds Gather over German Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(12), pages 33-87, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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