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Zur Prognosegüte der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stundenproduktivität

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Lehmann

    ()

  • Timo Wollmershäuser

    ()

Abstract

Das ifo Institut hat in den vergangenen Jahren die Zuwachsrate der Stundenproduktivität überschätzt. Der wesentliche Grund hierfür sind zu pessimistische Erwerbstätigenprognosen. Mögliche Erklärungsansätze sind strukturelle, von der Konjunktur unabhängige Veränderungen in der deutschen Volkswirtschaft, die in den ökonometrischen Konjunktur- bzw. Prognosemodellen nicht oder nur unzureichend berücksichtigt wurden. Die möglichen Erklärungsansätze dürften auch für andere Prognoseinstitutionen gelten, da auch die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, der Sachverständigenrat und die Europäische Kommission systematisch zu hohe Produktivitätsprognosen abgaben.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Zur Prognosegüte der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stundenproduktivität," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(22), pages 57-61, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:22:p:57-61
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/sd-2016-22-lehmann-wollmershaeuser-stundenproduktivitaet-2016-11-24.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hermann Gartner & Sabine Klinger, 2010. "Verbesserte Institutionen für den Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirtschaftskrise," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 90(11), pages 728-734, November.
    2. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Steffen Henzel & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Das ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer und der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(15), pages 35-40, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Johanna Garnitz & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Rei, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2016–2018: Robuste deutsche Konjunktur vor einem Jahr ungewisser internationaler Wirtschaftspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(24), pages 28-73, December.
    2. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:12:p:33-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:12:p:30-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:24:p:28-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:12:p:25-78 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Produktivität; Prognoseverfahren; Wirtschaftsprognose;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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