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Wachstum und Produktivität 2035 – Innovations- und Produktivitätslücken auf Ebene der Bundesländer

Author

Listed:
  • Niels Gillmann
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Jannik A. Nauerth
  • Joachim Ragnitz
  • Julia Sonnenburg
  • Michael Weber
  • Jannik André Nauerth

Abstract

This study projects economic growth paths of German federal states ("Länder") up to 2035 against the background of likely future developments, such as those in productivity growth and demographic trends. Starting with a baseline scenario, the study develops four alternative scenarios, which set specific objectives for the standard of living (gross domestic product (GDP) per inhabitant) and for future labor productivity (GDP per employed person). However, these objectives are set to derive possible conclusions for today’s economic policy. In the baseline scenario, economic growth in the projection period will decline noticeably compared to the recent past: Real GDP growth (potential growth rate) will fall to around 0.6 percent in 2035, more than halving compared with the current level. The standard of living and labor productivity will also grow more slowly in the future. The main driver here is demographic change, which will become increasingly apparent at the end of the projection period. According to the projections, the structurally weak states of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saarland and Saxony-Anhalt are likely to be particularly hard hit. Due to the difficult demographic framework conditions, economic growth in these three federal states is likely to be even negative at the end of the projection period. On the other hand, there are structurally strong federal states such as Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria or the city states of Berlin and Hamburg; these four federal states are likely to show the highest economic growth in the next 20 years (of around 1.1% on average).

Suggested Citation

  • Niels Gillmann & Robert Lehmann & Jannik A. Nauerth & Joachim Ragnitz & Julia Sonnenburg & Michael Weber & Jannik André Nauerth, 2019. "Wachstum und Produktivität 2035 – Innovations- und Produktivitätslücken auf Ebene der Bundesländer," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 106.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joachim Ragnitz, 2018. "Keine Kinder = keine Enkel: Zur Langfristigkeit demographischer Entwicklungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 25(04), pages 28-33, August.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. Joachim Ragnitz, 2014. "25 Jahre nach dem Mauerfall: Anmerkungen zum Stand der Deutschen Einheit," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(05), pages 44-47, October.
    4. Joachim Ragnitz, 2016. "Eine wirtschaftspolitische Agenda für die ostdeutschen Länder," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 23(04), pages 18-28, August.
    5. Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nagl, 2019. "Explaining spatial patterns of foreign employment in Germany," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 991-1003, July.
    6. Robert Lehmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Zur Prognosegüte der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stundenproduktivität," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(22), pages 57-61, November.
    7. Hermann Gartner & Sabine Klinger, 2010. "Verbesserte Institutionen für den Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirtschaftskrise," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 90(11), pages 728-734, November.
    8. repec:ces:ifodre:v:24:y:2016:i:04:p:18-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nagl, 2019. "Explaining spatial patterns of foreign employment in Germany," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 991-1003, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joachim Ragnitz, 2020. "How is Eastern Germany Holding its Own in the Crisis?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 27(06), pages 12-15, December.
    2. Joachim Ragnitz, 2020. "Increasing Numbers of Foreign Employees in Saxony," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 27(01), pages 25-28, February.
    3. Joachim Ragnitz & Felix Rösel & Marcel Thum & Christian Hirte & Wolfgang Tiefensee & Annekatrin Niebuhr & Philipp Fink & Martin Hennicke & Heinrich Tiemann, 2019. "Der Graben zwischen Ost und West – welche Politik hilft gegen Ungleichheit?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(16), pages 03-18, August.
    4. David Bauer & Joachim Ragnitz, 2020. "Structural adjustment requirements in Saxony's state budget? Deficits can only be prevented by personnel savings," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 27(04), pages 15-20, August.
    5. David Bauer & Joachim Ragnitz & Julia Sonnenburg, 2020. "Development of the Saxon Budget – an Calculation until the Year 2030," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 85.
    6. Joachim Ragnitz, 2019. "Schlechter als erwartet, besser als gedacht: Die wirtschaftliche Situation in Ostdeutschland 30 Jahre nach dem Mauerfall," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 26(05), pages 03-08, October.

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