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The Fall in German Unemployment: A Flow Analysis

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  • Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos
  • Launov, Andrey
  • Robin, Jean-Marc

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the recent fall in unemployment, and the rise in part-time work, labour market participation, inequality and welfare in Germany. Unemployment fell because the Hartz IV reform induced a large fraction of the long-term unemployed to deregister as jobseekers and appear as non-participants. Yet, labour force participation increased because many unregistered-unemployed workers ended up accepting low-paid part-time work that was offered in quantity in absence of a universal minimum wage. A large part of the rise in part-time work was also due to the tax benefits Hartz II introduced to take up a mini-job as secondary employment. This has provided an easy way to top-up labour income staggering under the pressure of wage moderation. The rise in part-time work led to an increase in inequality at the lower end of income distribution. Overall we find that Germany increased welfare as unemployment fell.

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  • Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Launov, Andrey & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2018. "The Fall in German Unemployment: A Flow Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 12846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12846
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Biewen & Miriam Sturm, 2021. "Why a Labour Market Boom Does Not Necessarily Bring Down Inequality: Putting Together Germany’s Inequality Puzzle," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1139, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    2. Hutter, Christian & Klinger, Sabine & Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "Which factors are behind Germany's labour market upswing?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201920, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Hochmuth, Brigitte & Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Gartner, Hermann, 2021. "Hartz IV and the decline of German unemployment: A macroeconomic evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Maia Güell & Cristina Lafuente & Manuel Sánchez & Hélène Turon, 2022. "So different yet so alike: micro and macro labour market outcomes in Germany and Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 147-169, May.
    5. Beckmannshagen, Mattis & Schröder, Carsten, 2022. "Earnings inequality and working hours mismatch," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Alisa Tazhitdinova, 2022. "Increasing Hours Worked: Moonlighting Responses to a Large Tax Reform," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 473-500, February.
    7. Bachmann, Ronald & Felder, Rahel & Tamm, Marcus, 2018. "Labour market participation and atypical employment over the life cycle: A cohort analysis for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 786, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Andrey Launov, 2021. "Working Time Accounts and Turnover," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(3), pages 1025-1056, July.
    9. Patricia Gallego Granados, 2019. "The Part-Time Wage Gap across the Wage Distribution," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1791, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Laun, Lisa, 2019. "In-work benefits across Europe," Working Paper Series 2019:16, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    11. KITAO Sagiri & MIKOSHIBA Minamo, 2022. "Why Women Work the Way They Do in Japan: Roles of Fiscal Policies," Discussion papers 22016, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Flinn, C. & Todd, P. & Zhang, W., 2020. "Personality Traits, Job Search and the Gender Wage Gap," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2053, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Lea Immel, 2021. "The Impact of Labor Market Reforms on Income Inequality: Evidence from the German Hartz Reforms," ifo Working Paper Series 347, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Tazhitdinova, Alisa, 2020. "Do only tax incentives matter? Labor supply and demand responses to an unusually large and salient tax break," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    15. Merkl, Christian & Sauerbier, Timo, 2022. "Public employment agency reform, matching efficiency, and German unemployment," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 01/2022, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    16. Joohun Han & Chanjin Chung, 2021. "Impact of Aging and Underemployment on Income Disparity between Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Households," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
    17. Martin Biewen & Miriam Sturm, 2022. "Why a labour market boom does not necessarily bring down inequality: putting together Germany's inequality puzzle," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 121-149, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Germany; Hartz reforms; Income inequality; mini-jobs; multiple job holding; non-participation; part-time work; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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