IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfwp/2019-05.html

Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Robert E. Hall
  • Marianna Kudlyak

Abstract

We study the paths over time that individuals follow in the labor market, as revealed in the monthly Current Population Survey. Some people face much higher flow values from work than in a non-market activity; if they lose a job, they find another soon. Others have close to equal flow values and tend to circle through jobs, search, and non-market activities. And yet others have flow values for non-market activities that are higher than those in the market, and do not work. We develop a model that identifies and quantifies heterogeneity in dynamic individual behavior. Our model provides a bridge between research on monthly transition rates in the tradition of Blanchard and Diamond (1990) and research on economic dynamics in the tradition of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994). Our estimates discern 5 distinct types. Most unemployment comes from just two of those types. Low employment types frequently circle among unemployment, short-term jobs, and being out of the labor market. Short-term jobs play a role in the job-finding process related to the role of unemployment. These are stop-gap jobs for high-employment types and a part of circling for low-employment types. Because of their high job-finding rates, and despite their low flow values of non-work relative to work, the volatility of the future lifetime value that high-employment types derive from work and non-work is lower than for low-employment types.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2020. "Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics," Working Paper Series 2019-5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2019-05
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2019-05
    Note: The first version of this paper was February 26, 2019.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2019-05.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24148/wp2019-05?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    2. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    3. Cole, Harold L & Rogerson, Richard, 1999. "Can the Mortensen-Pissarides Matching Model Match the Business-Cycle Facts?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(4), pages 933-959, November.
    4. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-283, June.
    5. Guido Menzio & Irina Telyukova & Ludo Visschers, 2016. "Directed Search over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 38-62, January.
    6. Stephen R. G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, 1999. "The Measurement of Unemployment: An Empirical Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 147-162, January.
    7. Boheim, Rene & Taylor, Mark P., 2002. "The search for success: do the unemployed find stable employment?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 717-735, December.
    8. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
    9. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Reporting Errors and Labor Market Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1319-1338, November.
    10. Lori G. Kletzer, 1998. "Job Displacement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 115-136, Winter.
    11. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
    12. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    13. Bruce C. Fallick, 1996. "A Review of the Recent Empirical Literature on Displaced Workers," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 50(1), pages 5-16, October.
    14. Mr. Ippei Shibata, 2019. "Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/282, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Farber, Henry S, 1994. "The Analysis of Interfirm Worker Mobility," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(4), pages 554-593, October.
    16. Marcus Eliason & Donald Storrie, 2006. "Lasting or Latent Scars? Swedish Evidence on the Long-Term Effects of Job Displacement," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(4), pages 831-856, October.
    17. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    18. Gagliarducci, Stefano, 2005. "The dynamics of repeated temporary jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 429-448, August.
    19. Michael J. Pries, 2004. "Persistence of Employment Fluctuations: A Model of Recurring Job Loss," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(1), pages 193-215.
    20. Iacopo Morchio, 2020. "Work Histories And Lifetime Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(1), pages 321-350, February.
    21. Shuaizhang Feng & Yingyao Hu, 2013. "Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of the US Unemployment Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 1054-1070, April.
    22. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415.
    23. Chan, Sewin & Stevens, Ann Huff, 2001. "Job Loss and Employment Patterns of Older Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(2), pages 484-521, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The unemployed with jobs and without jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David Wiczer, 2020. "Pandemic Recession: L- or V-Shaped?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 40(01), pages 1-31, May.
    3. Mueller, Andreas I. & Spinnewijn, Johannes, 2023. "The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment: Predictability, Heterogeneity and Selection," CEPR Discussion Papers 17913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Jyotirmoy Bhattacharya, 2021. "Indian urban workers' labour market transitions," Papers 2110.05482, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    5. Hie Joo Ahn & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered," NBER Working Papers 31241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2024. "Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(1), pages 35-69.
    7. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Launov, Andrey & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2021. "The fall in german unemployment: A flow analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Goensch, Johannes & Gulyas, Andreas & Kospentaris, Ioannis, 2024. "Worker mobility and UI extensions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    9. Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2019. "Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital," Staff Reports 908, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Hie Joo Ahn, 2023. "The role of observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the duration of unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 3-23, January.
    11. Gregory, Victoria & Menzio, Guido & Wiczer, David, 2025. "The alpha beta gamma of the labor market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Guido Menzio, 2023. "Stubborn Beliefs in Search Equilibrium," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 239-297.
    13. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel & Coglianese, John, 2021. "Projecting unemployment durations: A factor-flows simulation approach with application to the COVID-19 recession," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    14. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin, 2023. "Employer Reallocation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 58-76, July.
    15. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Looking ahead at the effects of automation in an economy with matching frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    16. Jyotirmoy Bhattacharya, 2023. "Indian Urban Workers’ Labour Market Transitions," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 66(2), pages 471-494, June.
    17. Reuben Ellul, "undated". "Timing the Maltese business cycle: A historical perspective," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2021, Central Bank of Malta.
    18. Felipe Alves & Giovanni L. Violante, 2024. "From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-39, Bank of Canada.
    19. Hie Joo Ahn & James Hamilton, 2022. "Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 1-32, April.
    20. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Olivero, Maria Pia, 2020. "Lending relationships and labor market dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    21. Victoria Gregory, 2023. "Labor Force Exiters around Recessions: Who Are They?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 105(1), pages 9-20, January.
    22. Martin Garcia-Vazquez, 2021. "Identification and Estimation of Non-stationary Hidden Markov Models," Working Papers 2021-023, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    23. Garibaldi, Pietro & Gomes, Pedro Maia, 2022. "Temporary Replacement Workers in a Matching Model with Employment at Will," IZA Discussion Papers 15503, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rui Castro & Fabian Lange & Markus Poschke, 2024. "Labor Force Transitions," NBER Working Papers 33200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    3. Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2017. "Loss of skill during unemployment and TFP differences across countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 215-235.
    4. Hie Joo Ahn & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered," NBER Working Papers 31241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gregory, Victoria & Menzio, Guido & Wiczer, David, 2025. "The alpha beta gamma of the labor market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. William J. Carrington & Bruce Fallick, 2017. "Why Do Earnings Fall with Job Displacement?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 688-722, October.
    7. Lepage-Saucier, Nicolas, 2016. "The consumption response to temporary layoffs and hours losses," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 177-193.
    8. Marianna Kudlyak & Fabian Lange, 2014. "Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates Among the Nonemployed Using Labor Force Status Histories," Working Paper 14-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    9. Krolikowski, Pawel & Zabek, Mike & Coate, Patrick, 2020. "Parental proximity and earnings after job displacements," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Hall, R.E., 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2131-2181, Elsevier.
    11. Gorry, Aspen & Munro, David & vom Lehn, Christian, 2020. "Experience, skill composition, and the persistence of unemployment fluctuations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Shibata, Ippei, 2022. "Reassessing classification errors in the analysis of labor market dynamics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Etienne Lalé, 2018. "Turbulence and the employment experience of older workers," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 735-784, July.
    14. Bacher, Annika & Grübener, Philipp & Nord, Lukas, 2025. "Joint search over the life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Kent Eliasson & Pär Hansson, 2016. "Are workers more vulnerable in tradable industries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 283-320, May.
    16. Bruce Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2001. "The importance of employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Lawrence F. Katz, 2016. "Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Nonparticipation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 7-54.
    18. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Audoly, Richard & De Pace, Federica & Fella, Giulio, 2022. "Job Ladder, Human Capital, and the Cost of Job Loss," CEPR Discussion Papers 17746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Verónica Amarante & Rodrigo Arim & Andrés Dean, 2014. "The Effects of Being Out of the Labor Market on Subsequent Wages: Evidence for Uruguay," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 39-62, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2019-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.