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Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails

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Abstract

We examine how the distribution of employment tenure has changed in aggregate and for various demographic groups, drawing links to trends in job stability and satisfaction. The fraction of workers with short tenure (less than a year) has been falling since at least the mid-1990s, consistent with the decline in job changing documented over this period. The decline in short-tenure was widespread across demographic groups, industry, and occupation. It appears to be associated with fewer workers cycling among briefly-held jobs and coincides with an increase in perceived job security among short tenure workers. Meanwhile, the fraction of workers with long tenure (20 years or more) has been rising modestly since the early 1980s owing to an increase in long tenure for women and the ageing of the population. The rise in long tenure for women was broad-based across industries and occupations but limited to married women. By contrast, long tenure has declined markedly among older men. This is only partly explained by changing demographics and employment patterns such as the decline in manufacturing and unionization. In addition, an increase in mid-career separations during the 1970s and 1980s appears to have reduced the likelihood of reaching long-tenure for men. Survey evidence indicates that – despite these substantive changes over time – longer-tenure workers report no greater concern about job insecurity or decreases in job satisfaction than four decades ago.

Suggested Citation

  • Raven S. Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2022. "Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 056, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmoi:93792
    DOI: 10.21034/iwp.56
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Gagliardi & Elena Grinza & François Rycx, 2021. "Can You Teach an Old Dog New Tricks? New Evidence on the Impact of Tenure on Productivity," Working Papers CEB 21-007, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Manning, Alan & Mazeine, Graham, 2020. "Subjective job insecurity and the rise of the precariat: evidence from the UK, Germany and the United States," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108485, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Charles L. Baum, 2022. "Seven jobs in a lifetime? An analysis of employee tenure," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 543-567, April.
    4. Frech, Maria & Maideu-Morera, Gerard, 2024. "The Hidden Demand for Flexibility: a Theory for Gendered Employment Dynamics," TSE Working Papers 24-1588, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Nicola Gagliardi & Elena Grinza & François Rycx, 2023. "Workers’ tenure and firm productivity: New evidence from matched employer‐employee panel data," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 3-33, January.
    6. Serdar Birinci & Kurt See & Shu Lin Wee, 2020. "Job Applications and Labor Market Flows," Working Papers 2020-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Jan 2023.
    7. Kuhn, Moritz & Ploj, Gasper, 2020. "Job stability, earnings dynamics, and life-cycle savings," CEPR Discussion Papers 15460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tenure distribution; New hires; Turnover; Retention; Long tenure; Job tenure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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