IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sls/resrep/1705.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Murray

Abstract

Based on original data analysis and a review of existing literature, this report summarizes the state of knowledge on the causes of the post-2004 slowdown in U.S. productivity growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
  • Handle: RePEc:sls:resrep:1705
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.csls.ca/reports/csls2017-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
    3. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Henry Hyatt & James Spletzer, 2013. "The recent decline in employment dynamics," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    6. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    7. Jianmin Tang & Weimin Wang, 2004. "Sources of aggregate labour productivity growth in Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 421-444, May.
    8. Chad Syverson, 2004. "Product Substitutability and Productivity Dispersion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 534-550, May.
    9. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2018. "Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity : Shocks vs. Responsiveness," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-007, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    11. Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard & Morales, Gonzalo, 2019. "Growth, slowdowns, and recoveries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 47-63.
    12. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 3-22, Fall.
    13. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    14. Jeremy Greenwood & Juan Sanchez & Cheng Wang, 2013. "Quantifying the Impact of Financial Development on Economic Development," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 194-215, January.
    15. Baumol, William J & Blackman, Sue Anne Batey & Wolff, Edward N, 1985. "Unbalanced Growth Revisited: Asymptotic Stagnancy and New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 806-817, September.
    16. John G. Fernald & J. Christina Wang, 2016. "Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 465-496, October.
    17. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2018. "How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(3), pages 679-702, September.
    18. repec:aei:rpaper:650501 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-3070, December.
    20. William D. Nordhaus, 2000. "Alternative Methods for Measuring Productivity Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1282, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    21. W. Diewert, 2015. "Decompositions of productivity growth into sectoral effects," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 367-387, June.
    22. Simon Gilchrist & Jae W. Sim & Egon Zakrajsek, 2013. "Misallocation and Financial Market Frictions: Some Direct Evidence from the Dispersion in Borrowing Costs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 159-176, January.
    23. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2017. "Declining Dynamism, Allocative Efficiency, and the Productivity Slowdown," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 322-326, May.
    24. Turunen, Jarkko & Musso, Alberto & Stocker, Marc & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón, 2006. "Labour productivity developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 53, European Central Bank.
    25. Chad Syverson, 2013. "Will History Repeat Itself? Comments on “Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?”," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 37-40, Spring.
    26. Dave Byrne & Carol Corrado, 2017. "ICT Prices and ICT Services: What Do They Tell Us About Productivity and Technology," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 33, pages 150-181, Fall.
    27. Chad Syverson, 2011. "What Determines Productivity?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 326-365, June.
    28. Dave Reifschneider & William Wascher & David Wilcox, 2015. "Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 71-109, May.
    29. Benjamin Moll, 2014. "Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions: Can Self-Financing Undo Capital Misallocation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3186-3221, October.
    30. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "Comments on Daniel Sichel's Review Article on The Rise and Fall of American Growth," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 63-67, Fall.
    31. Matthew Calver and Alexander Murray, 2016. "Decomposing Multifactor Productivity Growth in Canada by Industry and Province, 1997-2014," CSLS Research Reports 2016-19, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    32. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    33. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December.
    34. John R. Baldwin & Michael Willox, 2016. "The Industry Origins of Canada's Weaker Labour Productivity Performance and the Role of Structural Adjustment in the Post-2000 Period," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 19-36, Fall.
    35. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    36. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 2014. "Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance," NBER Working Papers 20479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Georg Erber & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "Estimating and Forecasting Aggregate Productivity Growth Trends in the US and Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 471, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    38. Raymond Mataloni & Kim Ruhl & Dylan Rassier & Fatih Guvenen, 2016. "Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement," 2016 Meeting Papers 1382, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    39. Roberts John M., 2001. "Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-32, July.
    40. Fernald, John G., 2007. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and contractionary technology improvements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2467-2485, November.
    41. Karl Whelan, 2002. "Computers, Obsolescence, And Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 445-461, August.
    42. David M. Byrne & John G. Fernald & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2016. "Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 109-182.
    43. Robert E. Hall, 2015. "Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the US Economy from the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 71-128.
    44. Ms. Lusine Lusinyan & Mr. Roberto Cardarelli, 2015. "U.S. Total Factor Productivity Slowdown: Evidence from the U.S. States," IMF Working Papers 2015/116, International Monetary Fund.
    45. David M. Byrne & Eugénio Pinto, 2015. "The Recent Slowdown in High-Tech Equipment Price Declines and Some Implications for Business Investment and Labor Productivity," FEDS Notes 2015-03-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    46. Michael-John Almon & Jianmin Tang, 2011. "Industrial Structural Change and the Post-2000 Output and Productivity Growth Slowdown: A Canada-U.S. Comparison," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 22, pages 44-81, Fall.
    47. Nadim Ahmad & Paul Schreyer, 2016. "Are GDP and Productivity Up to the Challenges of the Digital Economy?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 30, pages 4-27, Spring.
    48. Cogley, Timothy, 2005. "How fast can the new economy grow? A Bayesian analysis of the evolution of trend growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 179-207, June.
    49. Alon, Titan & Berger, David & Dent, Robert & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2018. "Older and slower: The startup deficit’s lasting effects on aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 68-85.
    50. Matthew Calver & Alexander Murray, 2016. "Decomposing Multifactor Productivity Growth in Canada by Industry and Province, 1997-2014," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 88-112, Fall.
    51. Maury, P-M. & Pluyaud, B., 2004. "The Breaks in per Capita Productivity Trends in a Number of Industrial Countries," Working papers 111, Banque de France.
    52. Jushan Bai & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1998. "Testing For and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432.
    53. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo & Peter N. Gal, 2015. "Frontier Firms, Technology Diffusion and Public Policy: Micro Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Productivity Working Papers 2, OECD Publishing.
    54. Willox, Michael & Baldwin, John R., 2016. "The Industry Origins of Canada?s Weaker Labour Productivity Performance and the Role of Structural Adjustment in the 1990s and the 2000s," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2016373e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    55. Diego Anzoategui & Diego Comin & Mark Gertler & Joseba Martinez, 2019. "Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 67-110, July.
    56. Alexander Murray, 2016. "Partial versus Total Factor Productivity Measures: An Assessment of their Strengths and Weaknesses," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 113-126, Fall.
    57. Andrew Sharpe, 2010. "Can Sectoral Reallocations of Labour Explain Canada’s Absymal Productivity Performance?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 19, pages 40-49, Spring.
    58. Jianmin Tang & Weimin Wang, 2004. "Sources of aggregate labour productivity growth in Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 421-444, May.
    59. Decker, Ryan A. & Haltiwanger, John & Jarmin, Ron S. & Miranda, Javier, 2016. "Where has all the skewness gone? The decline in high-growth (young) firms in the U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 4-23.
    60. Andrew Sharpe & James Uguccioni, 2017. "Decomposing the Productivity Wage Nexus in Selected OECD Countries, 1986-2013," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 32, pages 25-43, Spring.
    61. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-265.
    62. Ryan Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2014. "The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 3-24, Summer.
    63. Marshall Reinsdorf, 2015. "Measuring Industry Contributions to Labour Productivity Change: A New Formula in a Chained Fisher Index Framework," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 28, pages 3-26, Spring.
    64. David M. Byrne & Carol Corrado, 2015. "Recent Trends in Communications Equipment Prices," FEDS Notes 2015-09-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Antunes & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Peter Wanke, 2020. "Endogenous Long-Term Productivity Performance in Advanced Countries: A Novel Two-Dimensional Fuzzy-Monte Carlo Approach," Working Papers 2020111, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Alexander Murray, 2018. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S. Productivity Slowdown?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 34, pages 81-109, Spring.
    3. Elstner, Steffen & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2018. "The German productivity paradox: Facts and explanations," Ruhr Economic Papers 767, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    5. Matthew Calver and Alexander Murray, 2016. "Decomposing Multifactor Productivity Growth in Canada by Industry and Province, 1997-2014," CSLS Research Reports 2016-19, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    6. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1168, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," BIS Working Papers 711, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Ryan A. Decker & John C. Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2018. "Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity: Shocks vs. Responsiveness," NBER Working Papers 24236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim & John C. Haltiwanger & Zoltan Wolf, 2019. "Innovation, Productivity Dispersion, and Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 103-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Alon, Titan & Berger, David & Dent, Robert & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2018. "Older and slower: The startup deficit’s lasting effects on aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 68-85.
    12. Ander Perez-Orive & Andrea Caggese, 2017. "Capital Misallocation and Secular Stagnation," 2017 Meeting Papers 382, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2017. "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 343-356, May.
    14. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo & Peter N. Gal, 2019. "The best versus the rest: divergence across firms during the global productivity slowdown," CEP Discussion Papers dp1645, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Peter Bauer & Igor Fedotenkov & Aurelien Genty & Issam Hallak & Peter Harasztosi & David Martinez Turegano & David Nguyen & Nadir Preziosi & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Miguel Sanchez Martinez, 2020. "Productivity in Europe: Trends and drivers in a service-based economy," JRC Working Papers JRC119785, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    17. John R. Baldwin & Michael Willox, 2016. "The Industry Origins of Canada's Weaker Labour Productivity Performance and the Role of Structural Adjustment in the Post-2000 Period," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 19-36, Fall.
    18. Glocker, Christian & Wegmueller, Philipp, 2018. "International evidence of time-variation in trend labor productivity growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 115-119.
    19. Robert J. Gordon & Hassan Sayed, 2020. "Transatlantic Technologies: The Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. and European Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 27425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Mr. Nicola Pierri & Francesco Manaresi, 2019. "Credit Supply and Productivity Growth," IMF Working Papers 2019/107, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory; Labour Productivity; Living Standards; Growth; U.S.; Recession; Academics; Literature;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sls:resrep:1705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cslssca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CSLS The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask CSLS to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cslssca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.