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Why is productivity slowing down?

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  • Goldin, Ian
  • Koutroumpis, Pantelis
  • Lafond, François
  • Winkler, Julian

Abstract

The recent decline in aggregate labor productivity growth in leading economies has been widely described as a puzzle, even a paradox, leading to extensive research into possible explanations. Our review confirms the magnitude of the slowdown and finds that it is largely driven by a decline in total factor productivity and capital deepening. Disaggregation reveals that a significant part of the slowdown is due to sectors that experienced the large benefits from ICTs in the previous period, and that an increasing gap between frontier and laggard firms suggests slower technology diffusion and increasing misallocation of factors. We evaluate explanations that attempt to reconcile the paradox of slowing productivity growth and technological change, including mismeasurement, implementation lags for technologies, and creative destruction processes.

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  • Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99172
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    Cited by:

    1. Schubert, Torben & Jäger, Angela & Türkeli, Serdar & Visentin, Fabiana, 2020. "Addressing the productivity paradox with big data: A literature review and adaptation of the CDM econometric model," MERIT Working Papers 2020-050, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. N. Cordemans, 2018. "Low productivity growth," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 67-80, december.
    3. Fiaschi, Davide & Tealdi, Cristina, 2023. "The attachment of adult women to the Italian labour market in the shadow of COVID-19," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2023. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Working Paper Series 2023-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Petrović, Pavle & Gligorić Matić, Mirjana, 2023. "Manufacturing productivity in the EU: Why have Central and Eastern European countries converged and Southern EU countries have not?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 166-183.
    6. Yang, Jangho & Heinrich, Torsten & Winkler, Julian & Lafond, François & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2019. "Measuring productivity dispersion: a parametric approach using the Lévy alpha-stable distribution," MPRA Paper 96474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ferschli, Benjamin & Rehm, Miriam & Schnetzer, Matthias & Zilian, Stella, 2021. "Labor-saving technological change? Sectoral evidence for Germany," ifso working paper series 14, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socioeconomics (ifso).
    8. Alessandro Bellocchi & Giuseppe Travaglini & Beatrice Vitali, 2023. "How capital intensity affects technical progress: An empirical analysis for 17 advanced economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 606-631, July.
    9. Bart van Ark & Klaas de Vries & Abdul Erumban, 2024. "Are Intangibles Running out of Steam?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 46, pages 38-59, Spring.
    10. Lodge, David & Pérez, Javier J. & Albrizio, Silvia & Everett, Mary & De Bandt, Olivier & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Lastauskas, Povilas & Carluccio, Juan & Parrága, Susana & Carvalho,, 2021. "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy," Occasional Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
    11. Yiling Lin & Carl Benedikt Frey & Lingfei Wu, 2022. "Remote Collaboration Fuses Fewer Breakthrough Ideas," Papers 2206.01878, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    12. Mark Setterfield, 2024. "Integrating the Social Reproduction of Labour into Macroeconomic Theory," Working Papers 2405, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    13. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The big bang: Stock market capitalization in the long run," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 527-552.
    14. Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2022. "Impacts of (individual and aggregate) productivity and credit shocks on equilibrium aggregate production," Working Papers halshs-03686284, HAL.
    15. Bart van Ark, 2021. "Putting Together the Pieces of the Productivity Puzzle: Review Article of Productivity Perspectives and Productivity and the Pandemic," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 40, pages 118-133, Spring.
    16. Hötte, Kerstin, 2023. "Demand-pull, technology-push, and the direction of technological change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(5).
    17. Dobbelaere, Sabien & König, Michael D. & Spescha, Andrin & Wörter, Martin, 2024. "R&D Decisions and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Switzerland and the Netherlands," IZA Discussion Papers 17026, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Wroński Marcin, 2019. "The productivity growth slowdown in advanced economies: causes and policy recommendations," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 55(4), pages 391-406, December.
    19. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2022. "The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective," Working Paper Series 2022-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Samuel Muehlemann & Gerard Pfann & Harald Pfeifer, 2024. "Apprenticeship Input Demand Cyclicality of R&D and non-R&D Firms," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0223, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    21. Maya M. Durvasula & Sabri Eyuboglu & David M. Ritzwoller, 2024. "Distilling Data from Large Language Models: An Application to Research Productivity Measurement," Papers 2405.08030, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    22. Yang, Jangho & Heinrich, Torsten & Winkler, Julian & Lafond, François & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2019. "Measuring productivity dispersion: a parametric approach using the Lévy alpha-stable distribution," MPRA Paper 96474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Andres, Raphaela & Niebel, Thomas & Sack, Robin, 2024. "Big data and firm-level productivity: A cross-country comparison," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-053, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    24. Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Leiponen, Aija & Thomas, Llewellyn D.W., 2020. "Small is big in ICT: The impact of R&D on productivity," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity growth; secular stagnation; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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