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Why is productivity slowing down?

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  • Goldin, Ian
  • Koutroumpis, Pantelis
  • Lafond, François
  • Winkler, Julian

Abstract

The recent decline in aggregate labor productivity growth in leading economies has been widely described as a puzzle, even a paradox, leading to extensive research into possible explanations. Our review confirms the magnitude of the slowdown and finds that it is largely driven by a decline in total factor productivity and capital deepening. Disaggregation reveals that a significant part of the slowdown is due to sectors that experienced the large benefits from ICTs in the previous period, and that an increasing gap between frontier and laggard firms suggests slower technology diffusion and increasing misallocation of factors. We evaluate explanations that attempt to reconcile the paradox of slowing productivity growth and technological change, including mismeasurement, implementation lags for technologies, and creative destruction processes.

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  • Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99172
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    1. Schubert, Torben & Jäger, Angela & Türkeli, Serdar & Visentin, Fabiana, 2020. "Addressing the productivity paradox with big data: A literature review and adaptation of the CDM econometric model," MERIT Working Papers 2020-050, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. N. Cordemans, 2018. "Low productivity growth," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 67-80, december.
    3. Bart van Ark, 2021. "Putting Together the Pieces of the Productivity Puzzle: Review Article of Productivity Perspectives and Productivity and the Pandemic," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 40, pages 118-133, Spring.
    4. Lafond, François & Farmer, J. Doyne & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Winkler, Julian & Heinrich, Torsten & Yang, Jangho, 2019. "Measuring productivity dispersion: a parametric approach using the Lévy alpha-stable distribution," INET Oxford Working Papers 2019-14, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    5. Ferschli, Benjamin & Rehm, Miriam & Schnetzer, Matthias & Zilian, Stella, 2021. "Labor-saving technological change? Sectoral evidence for Germany," ifso working paper series 14, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socio-Economics (ifso).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity growth; secular stagnation; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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