IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jrp/jrpwrp/2018-006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Compositional Nature of Productivity and Innovation Slowdown

Author

Listed:
  • Uwe Cantner

    (FSU Jena)

  • Holger Graf

    (FSU Jena)

  • Ekaterina Prytkova

    (FSU Jena)

  • Simone Vannuccini

    (FSU Jena)

Abstract

A growing number of studies identify a generalized slowdown in labor productivity growth. The very existence of the slowdown ignited a series of academic debates suggesting that secular stagnation or 'mismeasurement' problems are at the root of the observed trends. We posit that the composition of aggregate productivity matters. In a nutshell, we make the analysis of productivity growth slowdown more fine-grained by shifting the focus to the industry level, considering that the downward trend identified at the macroeconomic level emerges from the aggregation of diverse industry-level productivity trends. We perform an analysis of the structural dynamics of labor productivity by conducting a non-parametric dynamic decomposition exercise that separates within (improvement) and between (structural change) effects for 10 OECD countries. By pooling industries in groups identified according to two different taxonomies - one related to R&D intensities rankings, and the other built upon the Pavitt taxonomy of sources of technological change -, this study assess the industry-level contributions to the slowdown and the trends over time of the within and between components. We interpret our findings highlighting common patterns and suggest two related technological explanations for the productivity slowdown: one based on a Baumol-disease-like effect driven by structural change and another based on implementation lags and/or on an exhaustion of technological opportunities - that is, on decreasing returns in innovative activities. To investigate that, we complement our productivity analysis with evidence on innovation slowdown trends, looking at aggregate and compositional trends. We explore the innovation slowdown using an array of indicators based on the notion of 'idea- TFP' and show that there is a generalized evidence for its occurrence. Eventually, we relate productivity and innovation slowdowns deriving tables of trends co-movements, weighted by input-output matrices coefficients, and clustered by Pavitt industry group. We interpret these relationships and highlight patterns and clusters of significant correlations.

Suggested Citation

  • Uwe Cantner & Holger Graf & Ekaterina Prytkova & Simone Vannuccini, 2018. "The Compositional Nature of Productivity and Innovation Slowdown," Jena Economic Research Papers 2018-006, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  • Handle: RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2018-006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://oweb.b67.uni-jena.de/Papers/jerp2018/wp_2018_006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc J. Melitz & Sašo Polanec, 2015. "Dynamic Olley-Pakes productivity decomposition with entry and exit," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 362-375, June.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Nick Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2005. "Competition and Innovation: an Inverted-U Relationship," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 701-728.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    4. Mokyr, Joel, 1990. "Punctuated Equilibria and Technological Progress," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 350-354, May.
    5. Uwe Cantner & Jens J. Krüger, 2004. "Geroski's Stylized Facts and Mobility of Large German Manufacturing Firms," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 24(3), pages 267-283, May.
    6. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Gary Pisano & Pian Shu, 2020. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from US Patents," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 357-374, September.
    7. Jeffrey I. Bernstein & M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1989. "Research and Development and Intra-industry Spillovers: An Empirical Application of Dynamic Duality," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 249-267.
    8. Metcalfe, J S, 1994. "Competition, Fisher's Principle and Increasing Returns in the Selection Process," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 327-346, November.
    9. Sandro Sapio & Andrea Roventini & Mauro Napoletano, 2006. "Modelling smooth and uneven cross-sectoral growth patterns: an identification problem," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(7), pages 1-8.
    10. Chad Syverson, 2011. "What Determines Productivity?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 326-365, June.
    11. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "Perspectives on The Rise and Fall of American Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 72-76, May.
    12. Eric J. Bartelsman, 2010. "Searching for the sources of productivity from macro to micro and back," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1891-1917, December.
    13. Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Demand Side Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 60-65, May.
    14. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    15. Kenneth Arrow, 1962. "Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention," NBER Chapters, in: The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, pages 609-626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Era Dabla-Norris & Si Guo & Vikram Haksar & Minsuk Kim & Kalpana Kochhar & Kevin Wiseman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The New Normal; A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/3, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Pavitt, Keith, 1984. "Sectoral patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 343-373, December.
    18. Nathan Goldschlag & Alex Tabarrok, 2018. "Is regulation to blame for the decline in American entrepreneurship?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 33(93), pages 5-44.
    19. Gregory Clark, 2016. "Winter Is Coming: Robert Gordon and the Future of Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 68-71, May.
    20. Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka & Minsuk Kim & Kevin Wiseman & Mr. Si Guo & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. V. Haksar & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar, 2015. "The New Normal: A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/003, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2014. "Return of the Solow Paradox? IT, Productivity, and Employment in US Manufacturing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 394-399, May.
    22. Uwe Cantner & Jens Krüger, 2008. "Micro-heterogeneity and aggregate productivity development in the German manufacturing sector," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 119-133, April.
    23. David Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2017. "Prices of high-tech products, mismeasurement, and the pace of innovation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 103-113, April.
    24. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    25. Uwe Cantner, 2017. "Foundations of Economic Change: An Extended Schumpeterian Approach," Economic Complexity and Evolution, in: Andreas Pyka & Uwe Cantner (ed.), Foundations of Economic Change, pages 9-49, Springer.
    26. Jacob Holm, 2014. "The significance of structural transformation to productivity growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 1009-1036, November.
    27. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    28. Cohen, Wesley M., 2010. "Fifty Years of Empirical Studies of Innovative Activity and Performance," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 129-213, Elsevier.
    29. Harberger, Arnold C, 1998. "A Vision of the Growth Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 1-32, March.
    30. Lucia Foster & John C. Haltiwanger & C. J. Krizan, 2001. "Aggregate Productivity Growth: Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 303-372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    32. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    33. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    34. Dosi, Giovanni & Nelson, Richard R., 2010. "Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 51-127, Elsevier.
    35. Ryan Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2014. "The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 3-24, Summer.
    36. Uwe Cantner & Simone Vannuccini, 2012. "A New View of General Purpose Technologies," Jena Economic Research Papers 2012-054, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    37. John Stanley Metcalfe & Ronnie Ramlogan, 2006. "Creative Destruction and the Measurement of Productivity Change," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 97(5), pages 373-397.
    38. Chad Syverson, 2017. "Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 165-186, Spring.
    39. Nicholas Crafts, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: Exploring the Numbers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 57-60, May.
    40. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 23-57, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Uwe Cantner & Ivan Savin & Simone Vannuccini, 2019. "Replicator dynamics in value chains: explaining some puzzles of market selection," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 589-611.
    42. Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
    43. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    44. Carlota Perez, 2010. "Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 185-202, January.
    45. Abramovitz,Moses, 1989. "Thinking about Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521333962.
    46. Reinganum, Jennifer F., 1989. "The timing of innovation: Research, development, and diffusion," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 849-908, Elsevier.
    47. Fernando Galindo-Rueda & Fabien Verger, 2016. "OECD Taxonomy of Economic Activities Based on R&D Intensity," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2016/4, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Aurov, Oleg (Ауров, Олег) & Zorin, Andrey (Зорин, Андрей), 2018. "Antiquity in the Middle Ages: Literature, Power, Law [Античность В Средние Века: Литература, Власть, Право]," Working Papers 061804, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    3. Califano, Andrea & Gasperin, Simone, 2019. "Multi-speed Europe is already there: Catching up and falling behind," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 152-167.
    4. Pasche, Markus, 2018. "Is there green growth in OECD countries?," MPRA Paper 87726, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    3. Cantner, Uwe & Vannuccini, Simone, 2021. "Pervasive technologies and industrial linkages: Modeling acquired purposes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 386-399.
    4. Ekaterina Prytkova, 2021. "ICT's Wide Web: a System-Level Analysis of ICT's Industrial Diffusion with Algorithmic Links," Jena Economic Research Papers 2021-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    5. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates, 2021. "Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 257-298, January.
    6. Uwe Cantner & Ivan Savin & Simone Vannuccini, 2019. "Replicator dynamics in value chains: explaining some puzzles of market selection," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 589-611.
    7. Uwe Cantner, 2017. "Foundations of Economic Change: An Extended Schumpeterian Approach," Economic Complexity and Evolution, in: Andreas Pyka & Uwe Cantner (ed.), Foundations of Economic Change, pages 9-49, Springer.
    8. Peter Bauer & Igor Fedotenkov & Aurelien Genty & Issam Hallak & Peter Harasztosi & David Martinez Turegano & David Nguyen & Nadir Preziosi & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Miguel Sanchez Martinez, 2020. "Productivity in Europe: Trends and drivers in a service-based economy," JRC Research Reports JRC119785, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    9. Robert J. Gordon & Hassan Sayed, 2019. "The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown," NBER Working Papers 25703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Daan Freeman & Leon Bettendorf & Harro van Heuvelen & Gerdien Meijerink, 2021. "The contribution of business dynamics to productivity growth in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 427, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Thomas Grebel & Mauro Napoletano & Lionel Nesta, 2020. "Distant but close in sight. Firm-level evidence on french-german productivity gaps in manufacturing," Working Papers halshs-03049459, HAL.
    12. Peter J. Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2020. "Innovative Growth Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, volume 35, pages 245-295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. MARSCHINSKI Robert & DE AMORES HERNANDEZ Antonio & AMOROSO Sara & BAUER Peter & CARDANI Roberta & CSEFALVAY Zoltan & GENTY Aurelien & GKOTSIS Petros & GREGORI Wildmer & GRASSANO Nicola & HERNANDEZ GUE, 2021. "EU competitiveness: recent trends, drivers, and links to economic policy: A Synthesis Report," JRC Research Reports JRC123232, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    14. Naudé, Wim, 2020. "From the Entrepreneurial to the Ossified Economy: Evidence, Explanations and a New Perspective," GLO Discussion Paper Series 539, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    15. Yoshihiko Hogen & Ko Miura & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Large Firm Dynamics and Secular Stagnation: Evidence from Japan and the U.S," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    16. Dosi, Giovanni & Nelson, Richard R., 2010. "Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 51-127, Elsevier.
    17. Timo Boppart & Huiyu Li, 2021. "Productivity Slowdown: Reducing the Measure of Our Ignorance," Working Paper Series 2021-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. J. David Brown & Gustavo A. Crespi & Leonardo Iacovone & Luca Marcolin, 2018. "Decomposing firm-level productivity growth and assessing its determinants: evidence from the Americas," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 1571-1606, December.
    19. Gordon, Robert J & Sayed, Hassan, 2019. "The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown," CEPR Discussion Papers 13751, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Nakamura, Koji & Kaihatsu, Sohei & Yagi, Tomoyuki, 2019. "Productivity improvement and economic growth: lessons from Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 57-79.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity slowdown; decomposition; industrial dynamics; innovation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2018-006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.wiwiss.uni-jena.de/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Markus Pasche (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.wiwiss.uni-jena.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.