IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/14237.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

From Good to Bad Concentration? US Industries over the Past 30 Years

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34

Author

Listed:
  • Matias Covarrubias
  • Germán Gutiérrez
  • Thomas Philippon

Abstract

We study the evolution of profits, investment and market shares in US industries over the past 40 years. During the 1990’s, and at low levels of initial concentration, we find evidence of efficient concentration driven by tougher price competition, intangible investment, and increasing productivity of leaders. After 2000, however, the evidence suggests inefficient concentration, decreasing competition and increasing barriers to entry, as leaders become more entrenched and concentration is associated with lower investment, higher prices and lower productivity growth.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Matias Covarrubias & Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "From Good to Bad Concentration? US Industries over the Past 30 Years," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 1-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14237
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c14237.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Mariel Schwartz, 2019. "The Transformation of Manufacturing and the Decline in US Employment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 307-372.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    3. Robert E. Hall, 2015. "Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the US Economy from the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 71-128.
    4. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
    5. Matej Bajgar & Giuseppe Berlingieri & Sara Calligaris & Chiara Criscuolo & Jonathan Timmis, 2019. "Industry concentration in Europe and North America," CEP Discussion Papers dp1654, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ali Hortaçsu & Chad Syverson, 2015. "The Ongoing Evolution of US Retail: A Format Tug-of-War," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 89-112, Fall.
    8. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2009. "A Concordance Between Ten-Digit U.S. Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product Classes and Industries," NBER Working Papers 15548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Nicholas Trachter, 2021. "Diverging Trends in National and Local Concentration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 115-150.
    10. Impullitti, Giammario & Licandro, Omar & Rendahl, Pontus, 2022. "Technology, market structure and the gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    12. Bernard, Andrew B. & Jensen, J. Bradford & Schott, Peter K., 2006. "Survival of the best fit: Exposure to low-wage countries and the (uneven) growth of U.S. manufacturing plants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 219-237, January.
    13. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Gary Pisano & Pian Shu, 2020. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from US Patents," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 357-374, September.
    14. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas Vincent, 2021. "The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Labor Share Decline," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1031-1087.
    15. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2023. "The Industrial Revolution in Services," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 3-42.
    16. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2012. "The Empirics of Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 283-313, July.
    17. Jan De Loecker & Frederic Warzynski, 2012. "Markups and Firm-Level Export Status," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2437-2471, October.
    18. Lee, Dong Wook & Shin, Hyun-Han & Stulz, Rene M., 2016. "Why Does Capital No Longer Flow More to the Industries with the Best Growth Opportunities?," Working Paper Series 2016-15, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    19. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates, 2021. "Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 257-298, January.
    20. Germán Gutiérrez & Sophie Piton, 2020. "Revisiting the Global Decline of the (Non-housing) Labor Share," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 321-338, September.
    21. Gustavo Grullon & Yelena Larkin & Roni Michaely, 2019. "Are US Industries Becoming More Concentrated?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 697-743.
    22. Loukas Karabarbounis & Brent Neiman, 2019. "Accounting for Factorless Income," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 167-228.
    23. Philippe Aghion & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt & Susanne Prantl, 2009. "The Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 20-32, February.
    24. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "The Failure of Free Entry," NBER Working Papers 26001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 2024. "Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 29-61, April.
    26. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    27. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Robbins, Jacob A. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2021. "Kaldor and Piketty’s facts: The rise of monopoly power in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 19-38.
    28. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Timo Boppart & Peter J Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2023. "A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2675-2702.
    29. Chad Syverson, 2004. "Market Structure and Productivity: A Concrete Example," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1181-1222, December.
    30. Susanto Basu, 2019. "Are Price-Cost Markups Rising in the United States? A Discussion of the Evidence," NBER Working Papers 26057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Nicolas Vincent & Matthias Kehrig, 2017. "Growing Productivity without Growing Wages: The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Aggregate Labor Share Decline," 2017 Meeting Papers 739, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    32. Bruce A. Blonigen & Justin R. Pierce, 2016. "Evidence for the Effects of Mergers on Market Power and Efficiency," Working Papers 16-43, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    33. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    34. Robert C. Feenstra & David E. Weinstein, 2017. "Globalization, Markups, and US Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1040-1074.
    35. Gilbert Richard J, 2006. "Competition and Innovation," Journal of Industrial Organization Education, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, December.
    36. Laurent Frésard & Philip Valta, 2016. "How Does Corporate Investment Respond to Increased Entry Threat?," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-35.
    37. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    38. Alexandre Corhay & Howard Kung & Lukas Schmid & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 0. "Competition, Markups, and Predictable Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(12), pages 5906-5939.
    39. Şebnem Kalemli- Özcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez & Vadym Volosovych & Sevcan Yeşiltaş, 2024. "How to Construct Nationally Representative Firm-Level Data from the Orbis Global Database: New Facts on SMEs and Aggregate Implications for Industry Concentration," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 353-374, April.
    40. Bajgar, Matej & Criscuolo, Chiara & Timmis, Jonathan, 2021. "Intangibles and industry concentration: supersize me," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113851, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    41. Demsetz, Harold, 1973. "Industry Structure, Market Rivalry, and Public Policy," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, April.
    42. Rotemberg, Julio J. & Woodford, Michael, 1999. "The cyclical behavior of prices and costs," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1051-1135, Elsevier.
    43. Zingales, Luigi & Faccio, Mara, 2017. "Political Determinants of Competition in the Mobile Telecommunication Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 11794, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    44. Hombert, Johan & Matray, Adrien, 2015. "Can Innovation Help U.S. Manufacturing Firms Escape Import Competition from China?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10666, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    46. Cette, Gilbert & Koehl, Lorraine & Philippon, Thomas, 2020. "Labor share," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    47. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
    48. Sørensen, Bent E & Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Volosovych, Vadym & Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2015. "How to construct nationally representative firm level data from the ORBIS global database," CEPR Discussion Papers 10829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    49. Philippon, Thomas & Gutierrez, German, 2018. "How EU Markets Became More Competitive Than US Markets: A Study of Institutional Drift," CEPR Discussion Papers 12983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Peter K. Schott, 2008. "The relative sophistication of Chinese exports [‘Manufacturing Earnings and Compensation in China’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(53), pages 6-49.
    51. Germán Gutiérrez & Callum Jones & Mr. Thomas Philippon, 2019. "Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy," IMF Working Papers 2019/233, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Joseba Martinez, 2018. "Automation, Growth and Factor Shares," 2018 Meeting Papers 736, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    53. Liliana Varela, 2018. "Reallocation, Competition, and Productivity: Evidence from a Financial Liberalization Episode," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 1279-1313.
    54. Joe S. Bain, 1951. "Relation of Profit Rate to Industry Concentration: American Manufacturing, 1936–1940," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 65(3), pages 293-324.
    55. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    56. Robert E. Hall, 2018. "New Evidence on the Markup of Prices over Marginal Costs and the Role of Mega-Firms in the US Economy," NBER Working Papers 24574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. G. M.P. Swann, 2009. "The Economics of Innovation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13211.
    58. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas Vincent, 0. "The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Labor Share Decline," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(2), pages 1031-1087.
    59. Decker, Ryan A. & Haltiwanger, John & Jarmin, Ron S. & Miranda, Javier, 2016. "Where has all the skewness gone? The decline in high-growth (young) firms in the U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 4-23.
    60. Christopher J. Nekarda & Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Price‐Cost Markup," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 319-353, December.
    61. Vicente Salas & Lucio San Juan & Javier Vallés, 2018. "Corporate cost and profit shares in the euro area and the US: the same story?," Working Papers 1833, Banco de España.
    62. Carol A. Corrado & Charles R. Hulten, 2010. "How Do You Measure a "Technological Revolution"?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 99-104, May.
    63. Richard Gilbert, 2006. "Looking for Mr. Schumpeter: Where Are We in the Competition-Innovation Debate?," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 6, pages 159-215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    64. Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K., 2018. "Investment responses to trade liberalization: Evidence from U.S. industries and establishments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 203-222.
    65. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2018. "How European Markets Became Free: A Study of Institutional Drift," NBER Working Papers 24700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    66. Mr. Romain A Duval & Davide Furceri & Bingjie Hu & João Tovar Jalles & Huy Nguyen, 2018. "A Narrative Database of Major Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/019, International Monetary Fund.
    67. Liliana Varela, 2018. "Reallocation, Competition, and Productivity: Evidence from a Financial Liberalization Episode," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(2), pages 1279-1313.
    68. Susanto Basu, 2019. "Are Price-Cost Markups Rising in the United States? A Discussion of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 23583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    3. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates, 2023. "What Happened to US Business Dynamism?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(8), pages 2059-2124.
    4. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "The Failure of Free Entry," NBER Working Papers 26001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Díez, Federico J. & Fan, Jiayue & Villegas-Sánchez, Carolina, 2021. "Global declining competition?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Matej Bajgar & Giuseppe Berlingieri & Sara Calligaris & Chiara Criscuolo & Jonathan Timmis, 2019. "Industry concentration in Europe and North America," CEP Discussion Papers dp1654, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Tommaso Bighelli & Filippo di Mauro & Marc J Melitz & Matthias Mertens, 2023. "European Firm Concentration and Aggregate Productivity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 455-483.
    8. Maarten de Ridder, 2022. "Market power and innovation in the intangible economy," POID Working Papers 064, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Vaziri, M., 2022. "Antitrust Law and Business Dynamism," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2219, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    11. Gutiérrez, Germán & Jones, Callum & Philippon, Thomas, 2021. "Entry costs and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 77-91.
    12. Panon, Ludovic, 2022. "Labor share, foreign demand and superstar exporters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2020. "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms [“Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 645-709.
    14. German Gutierrez, 2018. "Investigating Global Labor and Pro t Shares," 2018 Meeting Papers 165, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina & Díez, Federico & Fan, Jiayue, 2019. "Global Declining Competition," CEPR Discussion Papers 13696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Mondolo, Jasmine, 2020. "Macro and microeconomic evidence on investment, factor shares, firm and labor dynamics in Italy and in Trentino," MPRA Paper 99138, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5j3i17uo7399t940lrt6h6n545 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Thomas Hasenzagl & Luis Perez, 2023. "The Micro-Aggregated Profit Share," Papers 2309.12945, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    19. Savagar, Anthony, 2021. "Measured productivity with endogenous markups and economic profits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Germán Gutiérrez & Callum Jones & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 25609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ugur, Mehmet, 2024. "Innovation, market power and the labour share: Evidence from OECD industries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N82 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14237. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.