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Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions

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  • Steven J. Davis
  • John C. Haltiwanger

Abstract

The Great Recession and its aftermath saw the worst relative performance of young firms in at least 35 years. More broadly, as we show, young-firm activity shares move strongly with local economic conditions and local house price growth. In this light, we assess the effects of housing prices and credit supply on young-firm activity. Our panel IV estimation on MSA-level data yields large effects of local house price changes on local young-firm employment growth and employment shares and a separate, smaller role for locally exogenous shifts in bank lending supply. A novel test shows that house price effects work through wealth, liquidity and collateral effects on the propensity to start new firms and expand young ones. Aggregating local effects to the national level, housing market ups and downs play a major role – as transmission channel and driving force – in medium-run fluctuations in young-firm employment shares in recent decades. The great housing bust after 2006 largely drove the cyclical collapse of young-firm activity during the Great Recession, reinforced by a contraction in bank loan supply. As we also show, when the young-firm activity share falls (rises), local employment shifts strongly away from (towards) younger and less-educated workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger, 2019. "Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions," NBER Working Papers 25466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25466
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Knut Are Aastveit & Bruno Albuquerque & André Anundsen, 2019. "Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms," Working Paper 2019/8, Norges Bank.
    2. Bednarek, Peter & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel & Ma, Chang & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2019. "Capital flows, real estate, and local cycles: Evidence from German cities, banks, and firms," Discussion Papers 45/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "The Failure of Free Entry," NBER Working Papers 26001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann, 2019. "Housing markets and macroeconomic risks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1555, OECD Publishing.
    5. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Enisse Kharroubi, 2020. "The financial vulnerabilities driving firms to the exit," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    6. Matias Covarrubias & Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "From Good to Bad Concentration? U.S. Industries over the Past 30 Years," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 1-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Laura Veldkamp, 2020. "The Research Agenda: Laura Veldkamp on Modeling and Measuring the Data Economy," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 21(1), April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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