IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/25466.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Steven J. Davis
  • John C. Haltiwanger

Abstract

We estimate the effects of house price changes on young-firm employment shares and industry- level employment growth in local economies. A novel test shows that house price effects on local economies work through wealth, liquidity and collateral effects on the propensity to start new firms and expand young ones. Aggregating local effects to the national level, our estimates imply that housing market ups and downs play a major role – as transmission channel and driving force – in medium-run fluctuations in young-firm employment shares in recent decades. We also find a distinct and smaller role for locally exogenous loan-supply shifts.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger, 2019. "Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions," NBER Working Papers 25466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25466
    Note: EFG LS ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w25466.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Henry Hyatt & James Spletzer, 2013. "The recent decline in employment dynamics," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. John C. Haltiwanger & Henry R. Hyatt & Lisa B. Kahn & Erika McEntarfer, 2018. "Cyclical Job Ladders by Firm Size and Firm Wage," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 52-85, April.
    4. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Robert Kulick & Javier Miranda, 2016. "High Growth Young Firms: Contribution to Job, Output, and Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges, pages 11-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jensen, Thais Laerkholm & Leth-Petersen, Søren & Nanda, Ramana, 2022. "Financing constraints, home equity and selection into entrepreneurship," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 318-337.
    6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    7. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    8. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2015. "Foreclosures, House Prices, and the Real Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2587-2634, December.
    9. Erik Hurst & Annamaria Lusardi, 2004. "Liquidity Constraints, Household Wealth, and Entrepreneurship," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 319-347, April.
    10. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    11. Haltiwanger, John & Hurst, Erik & Miranda, Javier & Schoar, Antoinette (ed.), 2017. "Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226454078, February.
    12. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr & Ramana Nanda, 2015. "House Money and Entrepreneurship," Harvard Business School Working Papers 15-069, Harvard Business School.
    13. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 1999. "Gross job flows," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2711-2805, Elsevier.
    14. Haifang Huang & Eric Stephens, 2015. "From housing bust to credit crunch: Evidence from small business loans," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 853-880, August.
    15. Stefano Corradin & Alexander Popov, 2015. "House Prices, Home Equity Borrowing, and Entrepreneurship," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(8), pages 2399-2428.
    16. Teresa C Fort & John Haltiwanger & Ron S Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 520-559, August.
    17. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ronald S. Jarmin & C.J. Krizan & Javier Miranda & Alfred Nucci & Kristin Sandusky, 2009. "Measuring the Dynamics of Young and Small Businesses: Integrating the Employer and Nonemployer Universes," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 329-366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Laerkholm Jensen, Thais & Leth-Petersen, Søren & Nanda, Ramana, 2014. "Housing Collateral, Credit Constraints and Entrepreneurship - Evidence from a Mortgage Reform," CEPR Discussion Papers 10260, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. John M. Abowd & Bryce E. Stephens & Lars Vilhuber & Fredrik Andersson & Kevin L. McKinney & Marc Roemer & Simon Woodcock, 2009. "The LEHD Infrastructure Files and the Creation of the Quarterly Workforce Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 149-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    21. Robert W. Fairlie & Harry A. Krashinsky, 2012. "Liquidity Constraints, Household Wealth, And Entrepreneurship Revisited," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(2), pages 279-306, June.
    22. John Haltiwanger & Erik Hurst & Javier Miranda & Antoinette Schoar, 2017. "Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number halt14-1, January.
    23. Harding, John P. & Rosenthal, Stuart S., 2017. "Homeownership, housing capital gains and self-employment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 120-135.
    24. François Gourio & Todd Messer & Michael Siemer, 2016. "Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-Level Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 214-218, May.
    25. Kyle Herkenhoff, 2016. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Employment, Earnings and Entrepreneurship," 2016 Meeting Papers 781, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Davis, Steven J. & Faberman, R. Jason & Haltiwanger, John, 2012. "Labor market flows in the cross section and over time," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-18.
    27. Dmitriy Sergeyev & Neil Mehrotra, 2015. "Financial Shocks and Job Flows," 2015 Meeting Papers 520, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Hurst, Erik & Stafford, Frank, 2004. "Home Is Where the Equity Is: Mortgage Refinancing and Household Consumption," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 985-1014, December.
    29. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    30. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1979. "A General Equilibrium Entrepreneurial Theory of Firm Formation Based on Risk Aversion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 719-748, August.
    31. Davidoff, Thomas, 2016. "Supply Constraints Are Not Valid Instrumental Variables for Home Prices Because They Are Correlated With Many Demand Factors," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 177-206, December.
    32. Sara Moreira, 2016. "Firm Dynamics, Persistent Effects of Entry Conditions, and Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 708, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    33. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 2014. "Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance," NBER Working Papers 20479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 347-361, May.
    35. Gentry William M. & Hubbard R. Glenn, 2004. "Entrepreneurship and Household Saving," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-57, August.
    36. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, "undated". "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," Working Paper 90811, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    37. Black, Jane & de Meza, David & Jeffreys, David, 1996. "House Price, the Supply of Collateral and the Enterprise Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 60-75, January.
    38. Timothy Dunne & J. Bradford Jensen & Mark J. Roberts, 2009. "Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dunn05-1, January.
    39. Ouimet, Paige & Zarutskie, Rebecca, 2014. "Who works for startups? The relation between firm age, employee age, and growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 386-407.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bhattarai, Saroj & Schwartzman, Felipe & Yang, Choongryul, 2021. "Local scars of the US housing crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 40-57.
    2. Saleem Bahaj & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Employment and the Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 1832, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Maryam Farboodi & Adrien Matray & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2022. "Where Has All the Data Gone? [A noisy rational expectations equilibrium for multi-asset securities markets]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(7), pages 3101-3138.
    4. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina Ates, 2019. "What Happened to the U.S. Business Dynamism?," 2019 Meeting Papers 150, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Knut Are Aastveit & Bruno Albuquerque & André Anundsen, 2019. "Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms," Working Paper 2019/8, Norges Bank.
    6. Autor, David & Dorn, David & Hanson, Gordon, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," CEPR Discussion Papers 16688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Gutiérrez, Germán & Jones, Callum & Philippon, Thomas, 2021. "Entry costs and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 77-91.
    8. John C. Haltiwanger, 2022. "Entrepreneurship during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the Business Formation Statistics," Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 9-42.
    9. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2021. "Monetary Policy, External Finance and Investment," Working Papers 92, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    10. Peter Bednarek & Daniel Marcel te Kaat & Chang Ma & Alessandro Rebucci, 2021. "Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles:Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(10), pages 5077-5134.
    11. Germán Gutiérrez & Callum Jones & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 25609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Emin Dinlersoz & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Veronika Penciakova, 2021. "Business Formation: A Tale of Two Recessions," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 253-257, May.
    13. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "The Failure of Free Entry," NBER Working Papers 26001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann, 2019. "Housing markets and macroeconomic risks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1555, OECD Publishing.
    15. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Enisse Kharroubi, 2020. "The financial vulnerabilities driving firms to the exit," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    16. Smirnyagin, Vladimir, 2020. "Compositional nature of firm growth and aggregate fluctuations," Bank of England working papers 846, Bank of England.
    17. Matias Covarrubias & Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "From Good to Bad Concentration? US Industries over the Past 30 Years," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 1-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Banerjee, Ryan & Blickle, Kristian, 2021. "Financial frictions, real estate collateral and small firm activity in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    19. Kerr, Sari Pekkala & Kerr, William R. & Nanda, Ramana, 2022. "House prices, home equity and entrepreneurship: Evidence from U.S. census micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-119.
    20. Laura Veldkamp, 2020. "The Research Agenda: Laura Veldkamp on Modeling and Measuring the Data Economy," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 21(1), April.
    21. Samuel Brien, 2021. "Wealth Inequality, Uninsurable Entrepreneurial Risk and Firms Markup," Working Paper 1476, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    22. John Haltiwanger, 2022. "Entrepreneurship in the twenty-first century," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 27-40, January.
    23. Aslan, Hadiye & Kumar, Praveen, 2021. "Globalization and entrepreneurial entry and exit: Evidence from U.S. households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 83-100.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kerr, Sari Pekkala & Kerr, William R. & Nanda, Ramana, 2022. "House prices, home equity and entrepreneurship: Evidence from U.S. census micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-119.
    2. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2018. "Selection into Entrepreneurship and Self-Employment," NBER Working Papers 25350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bracke, Philippe & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Silva, Olmo, 2018. "Mortgage debt and entrepreneurship," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-66.
    4. Adelino, Manuel & Schoar, Antoinette & Severino, Felipe, 2015. "House prices, collateral, and self-employment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 288-306.
    5. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr & Ramana Nanda, 2015. "House Money and Entrepreneurship," Harvard Business School Working Papers 15-069, Harvard Business School.
    6. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2015. "Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Employers by Firm Size and Firm Wage," NBER Working Papers 21235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Liu, Shimeng & Zhang, Sisi, 2021. "Housing wealth changes and entrepreneurship: Evidence from urban China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Alon, Titan & Berger, David & Dent, Robert & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2018. "Older and slower: The startup deficit’s lasting effects on aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 68-85.
    9. John C. Haltiwanger & Henry R. Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & Matthew Staiger, 2021. "Cyclical Worker Flows: Cleansing vs. Sullying," NBER Working Papers 28802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jensen, Thais Laerkholm & Leth-Petersen, Søren & Nanda, Ramana, 2022. "Financing constraints, home equity and selection into entrepreneurship," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 318-337.
    11. Emin Dinlersoz & Henry Hyatt & Hubert Janicki, 2019. "Who Works for Whom? Worker Sorting in a Model of Entrepreneurship with Heterogeneous Labor Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 244-266, October.
    12. Michel Dumont & Chantal Kegels, 2016. "Working Paper 06-16 - Young Firms and Industry Dynamics in Belgium," Working Papers 1606, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    13. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2018. "Leverage over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness," CEPR Discussion Papers 13337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Oznur Ozdamar & Eleftherios Giovanis & Sahizer Samuk, 2020. "State business relations and the dynamics of job flows in Egypt and Turkey," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 519-558, December.
    15. Robert W. Fairlie & Javier Miranda, 2017. "Taking the Leap: The Determinants of Entrepreneurs Hiring Their First Employee," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 3-34, February.
    16. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & John Haltiwanger, 2014. "Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Large and Small Employers," 2014 Meeting Papers 735, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Ms. Yu Shi, 2018. "Sectoral Booms and Misallocation of Managerial Talent: Evidence from the Chinese Real Estate Boom," IMF Working Papers 2018/221, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Glancy, David, 2021. "Housing bust, bank lending & employment: Evidence from multimarket banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Gert Bijnens & Jozef Konings, 2020. "Declining business dynamism in Belgium," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1201-1239, April.
    20. Harding, John P. & Rosenthal, Stuart S., 2017. "Homeownership, housing capital gains and self-employment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 120-135.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25466. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.