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Financial Shocks and Job Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitriy Sergeyev

    (Bocconi University)

  • Neil Mehrotra

    (Brown University)

Abstract

The labor market recovery since the end of the Great Recession has been characterized by a marked decline in labor market turnover. In this paper, we provide evidence that the housing crisis and financial nature of the Great Recession account for this decline in job flows. We exploit MSA-level variation in job flows and housing prices to show that a decline in housing prices diminishes job creation and lagged job destruction. Moreover, we document differences across firm size and age categories, with middle-sized firms (20-99 employees) and new and young firms (firms less than 5 years of age) most sensitive to a decline in house prices. We propose a quantitative model of firm dynamics with collateral constraints, calibrating the model to match the distribution of employment by firm size and age. Financial shocks in our firm dynamics model depresses job creation and job destruction and replicates the empirical pattern of the sensitivity of job flows across firm age and size categories.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitriy Sergeyev & Neil Mehrotra, 2015. "Financial Shocks and Job Flows," 2015 Meeting Papers 520, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:520
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    Cited by:

    1. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
    2. Kyle Herkenhoff, 2016. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Employment, Earnings and Entrepreneurship," 2016 Meeting Papers 781, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Simon Mongey & Gianluca Violante & Alessandro Gavazza, 2015. "What Shifts the Beveridge Curve? Recruiting Intensity and Financial Shocks," 2015 Meeting Papers 1079, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Kudlyak, Marianna & Sánchez, Juan M., 2017. "Revisiting the behavior of small and large firms during the 2008 financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 48-69.
    5. Martin Beraja & Andreas Fuster & Erik Hurst & Joseph Vavra, 2019. "Regional Heterogeneity and the Refinancing Channel of Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(1), pages 109-183.
    6. Taejun Lim, 2018. "Housing as Collateral, Financial Constraints, and Small Businesses," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 68-85, October.
    7. Martin Beraja & Erik Hurst & Juan Ospina, 2019. "The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(6), pages 1789-1833, November.
    8. Florian, David & Francis, Johanna, 2019. "Lending frictions and nominal rigidities: Implications for credit reallocation and TFP," Working Papers 2019-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    9. Banerjee, Ryan & Blickle, Kristian, 2021. "Financial frictions, real estate collateral and small firm activity in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Mohamad B. Karaki, 2020. "Monetary shocks and job flows: evidence from disaggregated data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2911-2936, June.
    11. Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro & Moen, Espen R., 2018. "Financial constraints in search equilibrium: Mortensen Pissarides meet Holmstrom and Tirole," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-155.
    12. Francisco Buera & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2019. "Accounting for the Slow Recovery from the Great Recession: The Role of Credit Constraints," 2019 Meeting Papers 492, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Glancy, David, 2021. "Housing bust, bank lending & employment: Evidence from multimarket banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger, 2019. "Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions," NBER Working Papers 25466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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