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Financial Shocks and Job Flows

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  • Mehrotra, Neil
  • Sergeyev, Dmitriy

Abstract

We argue that the creation and destruction margins of employment (job flows) at the aggregate level and disaggregated across firm age and size can be used to measure the employment effects of disruptions to firm credit. Using a firm dynamics model, we establish that a tightening of credit to firms reduces employment primarily by reducing gross job creation, exhibiting stronger effects at new/young firms and middle-sized firms (20-99 employees). We find that 18% of the decline in US employment during the Great Recession is due to the firm credit channel. Using MSA-level job flows data, we show that the behavior of job flows overall and across firm size and age categories in response to identified credit shocks is consistent with our model's predictions and hold within tradable and non-tradable industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehrotra, Neil & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2016. "Financial Shocks and Job Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 11677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11677
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    Cited by:

    1. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
    2. Kyle Herkenhoff, 2016. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Employment, Earnings and Entrepreneurship," 2016 Meeting Papers 781, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Simon Mongey & Gianluca Violante & Alessandro Gavazza, 2015. "What Shifts the Beveridge Curve? Recruiting Intensity and Financial Shocks," 2015 Meeting Papers 1079, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Kudlyak, Marianna & Sánchez, Juan M., 2017. "Revisiting the behavior of small and large firms during the 2008 financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 48-69.
    5. Martin Beraja & Andreas Fuster & Erik Hurst & Joseph Vavra, 2019. "Regional Heterogeneity and the Refinancing Channel of Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(1), pages 109-183.
    6. Taejun Lim, 2018. "Housing as Collateral, Financial Constraints, and Small Businesses," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 68-85, October.
    7. Martin Beraja & Erik Hurst & Juan Ospina, 2019. "The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(6), pages 1789-1833, November.
    8. Banerjee, Ryan & Blickle, Kristian, 2021. "Financial frictions, real estate collateral and small firm activity in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    9. Mohamad B. Karaki, 2020. "Monetary shocks and job flows: evidence from disaggregated data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2911-2936, June.
    10. Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro & Moen, Espen R., 2018. "Financial constraints in search equilibrium: Mortensen Pissarides meet Holmstrom and Tirole," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-155.
    11. Francisco Buera & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2019. "Accounting for the Slow Recovery from the Great Recession: The Role of Credit Constraints," 2019 Meeting Papers 492, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. David P. Glancy, 2017. "Housing Bust, Bank Lending & Employment : Evidence from Multimarket Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-118, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger, 2019. "Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions," NBER Working Papers 25466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Frictions; Job flows;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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