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Bottom-Up Markup Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Ariel T Burstein
  • Vasco M Carvalho
  • Basile Grassi

Abstract

We study markup cyclicality in a granular macroeconomic model with oligopolistic competition. We first characterize how firm, sectoral, and aggregate markups comove with output at different levels of aggregation in response to firm-level shocks. We quantify the model’s ability to reproduce salient features of the cyclical properties of measured markups in French administrative firm-level data from the bottom (firm) level to the aggregate level. We document that (i) firm-level markups rise with market share and sector-level markups with concentration, (ii) the relationship between markups and sectoral output varies by firm size—negative for small firms but positive for large ones, (iii) sector-level markups move positively with sectoral output, and (iv) sectoral markups show no systematic relationship with aggregate output. Our model helps rationalize these seemingly conflicting patterns of markup cyclicality in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariel T Burstein & Vasco M Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2025. "Bottom-Up Markup Fluctuations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(4), pages 2619-2684.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:140:y:2025:i:4:p:2619-2684.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjaf029
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshiyuki ARATA & Daisuke MIYAKAWA, 2021. "The Size of Micro-originated Aggregate Fluctuations: An analysis of firm-level input-output linkages in Japan," Discussion papers 21066, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. van Vlokhoven, Has, 2022. "Decomposing the Rise in Markups," Other publications TiSEM 0b616f62-13a7-46f2-b285-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Hashmat Khan & Konstantinos Metaxoglou, 2021. "The Behavior of the Aggregate U.S. Wage Markdown," Carleton Economic Papers 21-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    4. Xu, Le & Yu, Yang & Zanetti, Francesco, 2025. "The adoption and termination of suppliers over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Hensel, Jannik & Mangiante, Giacomo & Moretti, Luca, 2024. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Olivier Wang & Iván Werning, 2022. "Dynamic Oligopoly and Price Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2815-2849, August.
    7. Philipp Meinen & Ana Cristina Soares, 2022. "Markups and Financial Shocks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2471-2499.
    8. Lidia Smitkova, 2023. "Profits, ‘Superstar’ Firms and Capital Flows," Economics Series Working Papers 1030, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Mertens, Matthias & Mottironi, Bernardo, 2023. "Do larger firms exert more market power? Markups and markdowns along the size distribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121283, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Jackie M. L. Chan & Han (Steffan) Qi, 2025. "Mergers, Firm Size, and Volatility in a Granular Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    11. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    12. García-Perea, Pilar & Lacuesta, Aitor & Roldan-Blanco, Pau, 2021. "Markups and cost structure: Small Spanish firms during the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 137-158.
    13. Bond, Steve & Hashemi, Arshia & Kaplan, Greg & Zoch, Piotr, 2021. "Some unpleasant markup arithmetic: Production function elasticities and their estimation from production data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Mertens, Matthias & Mottironi, Bernardo, 2025. "Do larger firms exert more market power? Markups and markdowns along the size distribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128958, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Alessandro Ferrari & Francisco Queirós, 2021. "Firm Heterogeneity, Market Power and Macroeconomic Fragility," CSEF Working Papers 627, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    16. Laurent Cavenaile & Pau Roldan-Blanco & Tom Schmitz, 2023. "International Trade and Innovation Dynamics with Endogenous Markups," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(651), pages 971-1004.
    17. Macedoni, Luca & Weinberger, Ariel, 2022. "Quality heterogeneity and misallocation: The welfare benefits of raising your standards," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. J. M. L. Chan & H. Qi, 2025. "Mergers, Firm Size, and Volatility in a Granular Economy," Post-Print hal-04719146, HAL.

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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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