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The Adoption and Termination of Suppliers over the Business Cycle

Author

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  • Xu, Le
  • Yu, Yang
  • Zanetti, Francesco

Abstract

We assemble a firm-level dataset to study the adoption and termination of suppliers over business cycles. We document that the aggregate number and rate of adoption of suppliers are procyclical. The rate of termination is acyclical at the aggregate level, and the cyclicality of termination encompasses large differences across producers. To account for these new facts, we develop a model with optimizing producers that incur separate costs for management, adoption, and termination of suppliers. These costs alter the incentives to scale up production and to replace existing with new suppliers. Sufficiently high convexity in management relative to adjustment costs is crucial to replicating the observed cyclicality in the adoption and termination rates at the producer and aggregate levels. We study the welfare implications of credit injections and subsidies on new inputs---the two main classes of supply-chain policies adopted in the U.S. since the COVID-19 pandemic. Credit injections generally outperform subsidies on new inputs, except when aggregate TFP is exceptionally high.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Le & Yu, Yang & Zanetti, Francesco, 2024. "The Adoption and Termination of Suppliers over the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 18976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18976
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP18976
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Le Xu & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping," CESifo Working Paper Series 11684, CESifo.
    3. Ding, Haoyuan & Li, Chang & Lu, Xingyu & Wang, Huanhuan, 2025. "Clan culture and supply chain resilience in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • L24 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Contracting Out; Joint Ventures

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