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Monetary Policy in Open Economies with Production Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Zhesheng Qiu
  • Yicheng Wang
  • Le Xu
  • Francesco Zanetti

Abstract

This paper studies the design of monetary policy in small open economies with domestic and cross-border production networks and nominal rigidities. The monetary policy that closes the domestic output gap is nearly optimal and is implemented by stabilizing the aggregate inflation index that weights sectoral inflation according to the sector’s roles as a supplier of inputs and a net exporter of products within the international production networks. To close the output gap, monetary policy should assign large weights to inflation in sectors with small direct or indirect (i.e., via the downstream sectors) import shares and failing to account for the cross-border production networks overemphasizes inflation in sectors that export intensively directly and indirectly (i.e., via the downstream sectors). We validate our theoretical results using the World Input-Output Database and show that the monetary policy that closes the output gap outperforms alternative policies that abstract from the openness of the economy or the input-output linkages.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhesheng Qiu & Yicheng Wang & Le Xu & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Monetary Policy in Open Economies with Production Networks," CESifo Working Paper Series 11613, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11613
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Antonova, Anastasiia & Huxel, Luis & Matvieiev, Mykhailo & Müller, Gernot, 2025. "The Propagation of Tariff Shocks via Production Networks," CEPR Discussion Papers 20305, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

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    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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