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Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers

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  • Di Giovanni, Julian
  • Kalemli-Özcan, á¹¢ebnem
  • Silva, Alvaro
  • Yıldırım, Muhammed A.

Abstract

We employ a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to analyze the factors driving pandemic-era inflation. The model incorporates both sector-specific and aggregate shocks, which propagate through the global trade and production network and generate demand and supply imbalances, leading to inflation and spillovers. The baseline quantitative exercise matches changes in aggregate and sectoral prices and wages for a sample of countries including the United States, Euro Area, China, and Russia. Our findings indicate that supply-chain bottlenecks ignited inflation in 2020, followed by a surge in prices driven by aggregate demand shocks from 2021 through 2022, exacerbated by rising energy prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, á¹¢ebnem & Silva, Alvaro & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 18628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18628
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    2. Binetti, Alberto & Nuzzi, Francesco & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2024. "People’s understanding of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
    3. Jonathon Hazell & Stephan Hobler, 2024. "Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach," Discussion Papers 2439, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2025. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: Not all energy shocks are alike," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Bryan P. Cutsinger & William J. Luther, 2025. "Symposium introduction: Reviewing the Federal Reserve's framework," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 91(4), pages 1213-1228, April.
    6. Firooz, Hamid & Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2025. "Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2025. "What Explains Global Inflation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(2), pages 522-555, June.
    8. Ampudia, Miguel & Lombardi, Marco Jacopo & Renault, Théodore, 2024. "The wage-price pass-through across sectors: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 2948, European Central Bank.
    9. Ascari, Guido & Grazzini, Jakob & Massaro, Domenico, 2024. "Great Layoff, Great Retirement and Post-pandemic Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 19068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Laura Alfaro & Mariya Brussevich & Camelia Minoiu & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2025. "Bank Financing of Global Supply Chains," NBER Working Papers 33754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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