IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfwp/98206.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reshoring, Automation, and Labor Markets Under Trade Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvain Leduc
  • Zheng Liu

Abstract

We study the implications of trade uncertainty for reshoring, automation, and U.S. labor markets. Rising trade uncertainty creates incentive for firms to reduce exposures to foreign suppliers by moving production and distribution processes to domestic producers. However, we argue that reshoring does not necessarily bring jobs back to the home country or boost domestic wages, especially when firms have access to labor-substituting technologies such as automation. Automation improves labor productivity and facilitates reshoring, but it can also displace jobs. Furthermore, automation poses a threat that weakens the bargaining power of low-skilled workers in wage negotiations, depressing their wages and raising the skill premium and wage inequality. The model predictions are in line with industry-level empirical evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2024. "Reshoring, Automation, and Labor Markets Under Trade Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2024-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:98206
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/wp2024-16.pdf
    File Function: Full text - article PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24148/wp2024-16?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dachs, Bernhard & Kinkel, Steffen & Jäger, Angela, 2019. "Bringing it all back home? Backshoring of manufacturing activities and the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1-1.
    2. Stemmler, Henry, 2019. "Does automation lead to de-industrialization in emerging economies? Evidence from Brazil," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 382, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Viswanathan Nagarajan & Prateek Sharma, 2021. "Firm internationalization and long‐term impact of the Covid‐19 pandemic," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1477-1491, September.
    2. Beier, Grischa & Matthess, Marcel & Shuttleworth, Luke & Guan, Ting & de Oliveira Pereira Grudzien, David Iubel & Xue, Bing & Pinheiro de Lima, Edson & Chen, Ling, 2022. "Implications of Industry 4.0 on industrial employment: A comparative survey from Brazilian, Chinese, and German practitioners," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Klaus E. Meyer & Jiatao Li & Keith D. Brouthers & Ruey-Jer ‘‘Bryan’’ Jean, 2023. "International business in the digital age: Global strategies in a world of national institutions," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(4), pages 577-598, June.
    4. McWilliam, Sarah E. & Kim, Jung Kwan & Mudambi, Ram & Nielsen, Bo Bernhard, 2020. "Global value chain governance: Intersections with international business," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4).
    5. Krenz, Astrid & Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2021. "Robots, reshoring, and the lot of low-skilled workers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    6. Cilekoglu, Akin A. & Moreno, Rosina & Ramos, Raul, 2024. "The impact of robot adoption on global sourcing," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    7. Kafouros, Mario & Cavusgil, S. Tamer & Devinney, Timothy M. & Ganotakis, Panagiotis & Fainshmidt, Stav, 2022. "Cycles of de-internationalization and re-internationalization: Towards an integrative framework," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1).
    8. Ganotakis, Panagiotis & Konara, Palitha & Kafouros, Mario & Love, James H., 2022. "Taking a time-out from exporting: Implications for the likelihood of export re-entry and re-entry export performance," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(5).
    9. Azmeh, Shamel & Nguyen, Huong & Kuhn, Marlene, 2022. "Automation and industrialisation through global value chains: North Africa in the German automotive wiring harness industry," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 125-138.
    10. Andrés César & Guillermo Falcone & Pablo Garriga, 2022. "Robots, Exports and Top Income Inequality: Evidence for the U.S," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0307, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    11. Huiwen Gong & Robert Hassink & Christopher Foster & Martin Hess & Harry Garretsen, 2022. "Globalisation in reverse? Reconfiguring the geographies of value chains and production networks [Does Covid-19 Spark the End of Globalisation?]," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 15(2), pages 165-181.
    12. Kinga Hat & Gernot Stoeglehner, 2020. "Spatial Dimension of the Employment Market Exposition to Digitalisation—The Case of Austria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-29, March.
    13. Mukherjee, Debmalya & Kumar, Satish & Pandey, Nitesh & Lahiri, Somnath, 2023. "Is offshoring dead? A multidisciplinary review and future directions," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(3).
    14. Nathalie Lazaric & Pasquale Tridico & Sebastiano Fadda, 2020. "Governing structural changes and sustainability through (new) institutions and organizations," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1267-1273, November.
    15. Cugno, Monica & Castagnoli, Rebecca & Büchi, Giacomo, 2021. "Openness to Industry 4.0 and performance: The impact of barriers and incentives," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    16. DeStefano, Timothy & Timmis, Jonathan, 2024. "Robots and export quality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    17. Lekfuangfu, Warn N. & Nakavachara, Voraprapa, 2021. "Reshaping Thailand's labor market: The intertwined forces of technology advancements and shifting supply chains," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Artuc,Erhan & Christiaensen,Luc & Winkler,Hernan Jorge, 2019. "Does Automation in Rich Countries Hurt Developing Ones? : Evidence from the U.S. and Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8741, The World Bank.
    19. D’Amico, Elettra & Belitski, Maksim & Colombelli, Alessandra, 2023. "Evaluating Internal and External Knowledge Sources in Adopting Artificial Intelligence," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis LEI & BRICK - Laboratory of Economics of Innovation "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio 202303, University of Turin.
    20. Pinheiro, Alexandra & Sochirca, Elena & Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha, 2023. "Automation and off(re)shoring: A meta-regression analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    offshoring; reshoring; automation; robots; uncertainty; unemployment; wages; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:98206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.