IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants

  • Hideaki Hirata
  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Christopher Otrok
  • Marco E. Terrones

We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2013-07.

in new window

Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-07
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Crawford Building, Lennox Crossing, Building #132, Canberra ACT 2601

Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2012. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Working Paper Series 2012-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  3. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2009. "Technology Shocks And Robust Sign Restrictions In A Euro Area Svar," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 727-750, 08.
  5. Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng, 2011. "A hierarchical factor analysis of U.S. housing market dynamics," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14, pages C1-C24, 02.
  6. Aoki, Kosuke & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2003. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 7, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2012. "Housing Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Global Perspective," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 77379, Inter-American Development Bank.
  8. M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones & Eswar S. Prasad, 2004. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  9. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
  10. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Working Papers 2008-16, Swiss National Bank.
  11. Calza, Alessandro & Stracca, Livio & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2009. "Housing finance and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1069, European Central Bank.
  12. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2011. "Monetary policy and housing sector dynamics in a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive model," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, August.
  13. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2007. "Regional housing market spillovers in the US: lessons from regional divergences in a common monetary policy setting," Working Paper Series 0708, European Central Bank.
  14. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles; Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  16. Christopher Otrok & Ayhan Kose & Mario J. Crucini, 2009. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles," 2009 Meeting Papers 820, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  17. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  18. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data," International Finance Discussion Papers 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
  20. Mick Silver, 2012. "Why House Price Indexes Differ; Measurement and Analysis," IMF Working Papers 12/125, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross-country Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 2750, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. Mark Gertler, 1988. "Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
  23. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  24. Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
  25. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2014. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Working Papers 14-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  26. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Kirstin Hubrich & Robert J. Tetlow, 2012. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  28. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  29. Kenneth Kuttner, 2012. "Low Interest Rates and Housing Bubbles: Still No Smoking Gun," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-01, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  30. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2011. "Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2011-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  31. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
  32. Christopher Otrok & Panayiotis M. Pourpourides, 2011. "On the Cyclicality of Real Wages and Wage Differentials," Working Papers 2011-4, Central Bank of Cyprus.
  33. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  34. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
  35. Thomas Helbling & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Raju Huidrom, 2010. "Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 10/261, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEP Discussion Papers dp1379, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  37. Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 339-366.
  38. Beltratti, Andrea & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 533-545, March.
  39. Luis J. Álvarez & Guido Bulligan & Alberto Cabrero & Laurent Ferrara & Harald Stahl, 2010. "Housing Cycles In The Major Euro Area Countries," Occasional Papers 1001, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
  40. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
  41. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2006. "The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices," Working Papers 06_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  42. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2006. "New Keynesian Models, Durable Goods and Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
  44. Mick Silver, 2011. "House Price Indices: Does Measurement Matter?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 12(3), pages 69-86, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.