The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices
This paper identifies the expansion and contraction phases of New Zealand's national and regional house prices, by employing techniques typically used to study cycles in real activity, the so-called Classical cycle dating method. We then enquire into the nature of the cycles, addressing five questions: (1) What are the New Zealand and regional house price cycles, and do the regional cycles differ from the national cycle?; (2) What are the typical durations, magnitudes and shapes of these house price cycles?; (3) Do cycles in house prices match cycles in economic activity, at either national or regional levels?; (4) Does it matter which of the two main sets of house price series are used? i.e. Quotable Value New Zealand (QVNZ) or Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ)?; and (5) Does the sample period matter? Findings are evaluated in the context of work by Grimes, Aitken and Kerr (2004), and Hall and McDermott (2005). Avenues for further research are suggested.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2006|
|Date of revision:|
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- Arthur Grimes & Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken, 2003.
"Housing and Economic Adjustment,"
03_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
- Canova, Fabio, 1998.
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"Booms and slumps in world commodity prices,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken & Suzi Kerr, 2004. "House Price Efficiency: Expectations, Sales, Symmetry," Urban/Regional 0408001, EconWPA.
- King, R.G. & Plosser, C.I., 1989.
"Real Business Cycles And The Test Of The Adelmans,"
RCER Working Papers
204, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
- Viv Hall & C. John McDermott, 2004.
"Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?,"
04_10, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
- Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2007. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(2), pages 167-191, 06.
- Viv. B Hall & McDermott C. John, 2004. "Regional Business Cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," ERSA conference papers ersa04p200, European Regional Science Association.
- Viv B Hall & C. John McDermott, 2005. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?," Urban/Regional 0509013, EconWPA.
- Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2009. "The New Zealand Business Cycle," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 1050-1069, August.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002.
"Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
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