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Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks Revisited: Theory and Evidence

In: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond

Author

Listed:
  • Hassan Afrouzi
  • Saroj Bhattarai
  • Edson Wu

Abstract

We provide theory and evidence that relative price shocks can cause aggregate inflation and act as aggregate supply shocks. Empirically, we show that exogenous positive energy price shocks have a positive impact not only on headline but also on U.S. core inflation while depressing U.S. real activity. In a two-sector monetary model with upstream and downstream sectors and heterogeneous price stickiness, we analytically characterize how upstream shocks propagate to prices. Using panel IV local projections, we show that the responsiveness of sectoral PCE prices to energy price shocks is in line with model predictions. Motivated by post-COVID inflation in the U.S., a model experiment shows that a one-time relative price shock generates persistent movements in headline and core inflation similar to those observed in the data, even in the absence of aggregate slack. The model also emphasizes that monetary policy stance plays an important role in propagation of such shocks.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hassan Afrouzi & Saroj Bhattarai & Edson Wu, 2024. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks Revisited: Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:15073
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    Cited by:

    1. Kristin Forbes & Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose, 2025. "Tradeoffs over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation, and the Price Level," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Clarida, Richard, 2024. "A global perspective on post pandemic inflation and its retreat: Remarks prepared for NBER conference on “inflation in the COVID era”," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
    3. Anna Lipinska & Enrique Martínez García & Felipe Schwartzman, 2025. "Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-071, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Saroj Bhattarai & Arpita Chatterjee & Gautham Udupa, 2024. "Food, Fuel, and Facts: Distributional Effects of Global Price Shocks," Discussion Papers 2024-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    5. Ipsen, Leonhard & Aminian, Armin & Schulz, Jan, 2025. "Stress-testing Inflation Exposure: Systemically significant prices and asymmetric shock propagation in the EU," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 713-724.
    6. repec:ifs:ifsewp:36 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models

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