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Bottom-up Markup Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Grassi, Basile
  • Burstein, Ariel Tomas
  • Carvalho, Vasco

Abstract

We study markup cyclicality in a granular macroeconomic model with oligopolistic competition. We characterize the comovement of firm, sectoral, and economy-wide markups with sectoral and aggregate output following firm-level shocks. We then quantify the model’s ability to reproduce salient features of the cyclical properties of markups in French administrative firm-level data, from the bottom (firm) level to the aggregate level. Our model helps rationalize various, seemingly conflicting, measures of markup cyclicality in the French data.

Suggested Citation

  • Grassi, Basile & Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Carvalho, Vasco, 2020. "Bottom-up Markup Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15360, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15360
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    2. Yoshiyuki ARATA & Daisuke MIYAKAWA, 2021. "The Size of Micro-originated Aggregate Fluctuations: An analysis of firm-level input-output linkages in Japan," Discussion papers 21066, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. van Vlokhoven, Has, 2022. "Decomposing the Rise in Markups," Other publications TiSEM 0b616f62-13a7-46f2-b285-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Hashmat Khan & Konstantinos Metaxoglou, 2021. "The Behavior of the Aggregate U.S. Wage Markdown," Carleton Economic Papers 21-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    5. Xu, Le & Yu, Yang & Zanetti, Francesco, 2025. "The adoption and termination of suppliers over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Hensel, Jannik & Mangiante, Giacomo & Moretti, Luca, 2024. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    7. Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2019. "Production networks and economic policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 638-677.
    8. Olivier Wang & Iván Werning, 2022. "Dynamic Oligopoly and Price Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2815-2849, August.
    9. Philipp Meinen & Ana Cristina Soares, 2022. "Markups and Financial Shocks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2471-2499.
    10. Lidia Smitkova, 2023. "Profits, ‘Superstar’ Firms and Capital Flows," Economics Series Working Papers 1030, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Mertens, Matthias & Mottironi, Bernardo, 2023. "Do larger firms exert more market power? Markups and markdowns along the size distribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121283, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Suveg, Melinda, 2021. "Does Firm Exit Increase Prices?," Working Paper Series 1414, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    13. Jackie M. L. Chan & Han (Steffan) Qi, 2025. "Mergers, Firm Size, and Volatility in a Granular Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    14. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    15. García-Perea, Pilar & Lacuesta, Aitor & Roldan-Blanco, Pau, 2021. "Markups and cost structure: Small Spanish firms during the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 137-158.
    16. Bond, Steve & Hashemi, Arshia & Kaplan, Greg & Zoch, Piotr, 2021. "Some unpleasant markup arithmetic: Production function elasticities and their estimation from production data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 1-14.
    17. Eeckhout, Jan & De loecker, Jan & Mongey, Simon, 2021. "Quantifying Market Power And Business Dynamism In The Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 16097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Mertens, Matthias & Mottironi, Bernardo, 2025. "Do larger firms exert more market power? Markups and markdowns along the size distribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128958, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Alessandro Ferrari & Francisco Queirós, 2021. "Firm Heterogeneity, Market Power and Macroeconomic Fragility," CSEF Working Papers 627, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    20. Laurent Cavenaile & Pau Roldan-Blanco & Tom Schmitz, 2023. "International Trade and Innovation Dynamics with Endogenous Markups," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(651), pages 971-1004.
    21. Macedoni, Luca & Weinberger, Ariel, 2022. "Quality heterogeneity and misallocation: The welfare benefits of raising your standards," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    22. Jackie M.L. Chan & C. K. Woo, 2025. "Mergers, Firm Size, and Volatility in a Granular Economy," Post-Print hal-04719146, HAL.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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