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Corporate Secular Stagnation: Empirical Evidence on the Advanced Economy Investment Slowdown

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  • Strauss, Ilan
  • Yang, Jangho

Abstract

We detail a secular slowdown in investment rates using a large panel of advanced economy non-financial firms from 18 countries between 1994-2017. We test competing explanations for the investment slowdown using a Bayesian 'mixed effects' model, with time-varying and country-varying coefficients to fully explore variation in financing constraints and investment behaviour. Firms' estimated underlying impetus to invest falls precipitously between 1997-2017, with only a mild recovery between 2003-2008. The slope of the investment demand curve -- approximated by time-varying Q regressions coefficients -- remains roughly constant, indicating that `financialization' or growing monopoly power has not dulled firms' responsiveness to investment opportunities. Contrary to precautionary savings arguments, advanced economy firms are not meaningfully financially constrained. Instead, the corporate sector as a whole is increasingly a net external `releaser' of funds to shareholders, creditors, and bondholders, and this behaviour closely tracks declining investment rates between years.

Suggested Citation

  • Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2020. "Corporate Secular Stagnation: Empirical Evidence on the Advanced Economy Investment Slowdown," INET Oxford Working Papers 2019-16, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:amz:wpaper:2019-16
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    Cited by:

    1. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secular Stagnation; Investment Slowdown; Hierarchical Model; Finance Constrained; Tobin's Q; Investment Rates; Corporate Savings; Bayesian Econometrics.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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