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Uncertainty and the slowdown of capital accumulation in Europe

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  • Paola Caselli
  • Patrizio Pagano
  • Fabiano Schivardi

Abstract

The slowdown in the process of capital formation in continental Europe in the 1990s is analysed. Sector-level data from the OECD's International Sectoral Data Base (ISDB) are used. Econometric estimates of an investment function indicate structural instability in the early 1990s and, specifically, a break in the coefficient linking the growth of capital stock to demand. This result neither seems to be related to non-linearities in the relationship between capital formation and expected demand, nor to the sectoral composition of European economies. Evidence is found that the drop in the accelerator is at least partly attributable to greater demand uncertainty in the 1990s as compared with the earlier period.

Suggested Citation

  • Paola Caselli & Patrizio Pagano & Fabiano Schivardi, 2003. "Uncertainty and the slowdown of capital accumulation in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 79-89.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:1:p:79-89
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840210158958
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
    2. Paola Caselli & Patrizio Pagano & Fabiano Schivardi, 2001. "Investment and Growth in Europe and in the United States in the Nineties," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 91(8), pages 3-36, October.
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    4. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227.
    5. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," NBER Working Papers 5091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    7. Nicolas Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Econometric Studies of Investment Behavior: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1111-1147, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    2. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2010. "Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 218-238, March.
    3. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(3), pages 39-98.
    4. Femminis, Gianluca, 2008. "Risk-aversion and the investment-uncertainty relationship: The role of capital depreciation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 585-591, March.
    5. Gianluca Femminis, 2012. "Risk aversion heterogeneity and the investment-uncertainty relationship," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Teoria Economica e Metodi Quantitativi itemq1260, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

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