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Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia

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  • Emmanuel Farhi
  • Francois Gourio

Abstract

Real risk-free interest rates have trended down over the past 30 years. Puzzlingly in light of this decline, (1) the return on private capital has remained stable or even increased, creating an increasing wedge with safe interest rates; (2) stock market valuation ratios have increased only moderately; (3) investment has been lackluster. We use a simple extension of the neoclassical growth model to diagnose the nexus of forces that jointly accounts for these developments. We find that rising market power, rising unmeasured intangibles, and rising risk premia, play a crucial role, over and above the traditional culprits of increasing savings supply and technological growth slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Working Paper Series WP-2018-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2018-19
    DOI: 10.21033/wp-2018-19
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    2. De Ridder, M., 2019. "Market Power and Innovation in the Intangible Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1931, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Akcigit, Ufuk & Ates, Sina T., 2019. "What Happened to U.S. Business Dynamism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13669, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. M. Marx & B. Mojon & F. Velde, 2017. "Why Have Interest Rates Fallen far Below the Return on Capital," Working papers 630, Banque de France.
    5. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates, 2019. "Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory," NBER Working Papers 25755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Huiyu Li & Peter Klenow & Timo Boppart, 2019. "A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents," 2019 Meeting Papers 458, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Adriana Grasso & Juan Passadore & Facundo Piguillem, 2020. "The Macroeconomics of Hedging Income Shares," EIEF Working Papers Series 2009, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2020.
    8. Mumtaz Ahmad & John Fernald & Hashmat Khan, 2019. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production, Redux," Carleton Economic Papers 19-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    9. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "Le taux neutre au Canada : mise à jour de 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11fr, Bank of Canada.
    10. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2019. "The Firm Size and Leverage Relationship and Its Implications for Entry and Concentration in a Low Interest Rate World," Working Papers 19-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Gunther Tichy, 2019. "Das vernachlässigte Massensparen. Die wirtschaftspolitischen Folgen zunehmender Intermediation," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 92(8), pages 583-597, August.
    12. Łukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," NBER Working Papers 26198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates, 2019. "Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 7849, CESifo.
    14. Daniel L. Greenwald & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2019. "How the Wealth Was Won: Factors Shares as Market Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 25769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; equity premium; risk-free rate; profitability; valuation ratios; labor share; competition; markups; safe assets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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