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Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-09

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  • Matthieu Bussière
  • Giovanni Callegari
  • Fabio Ghironi
  • Giulia Sestieri
  • Norihiko Yamano

Abstract

This paper introduces a new methodology for the estimation of demand trade elasticities based on an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand, with the foundation of a stylized theoretical model. We compute the import intensity of demand components by using the OECD Input-Output tables. We argue that the composition of demand plays a key role in trade dynamics because of the large movements in the most import-intensive categories of expenditure (especially investment, but also exports). We provide evidence in favor of these mechanisms for a panel of 18 OECD countries, paying particular attention to the 2008-09 Great Trade Collapse.

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  • Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2011. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-09," NBER Working Papers 17712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17712
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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