IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosys/v35y2011i2p244-260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data

Author

Listed:
  • Siliverstovs, Boriss
  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
  • Thiessen, Ulrich

Abstract

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors - e.g., income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size - aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in aging exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, an increasing share of the elderly (decreasing share of the youth) in society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Siliverstovs, Boriss & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Thiessen, Ulrich, 2011. "Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 244-260, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:244-260
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939-3625(10)00058-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shelton, Cameron A., 2008. "The aging population and the size of the welfare state: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 647-651, April.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Chenery, Hollis & Taylor, Lance, 1968. "Development Patterns: Among Countries And Over Time," Center for International Affairs (CIA) Archive 294545, Harvard University, Center for International Affairs.
    4. Briotti, Maria Gabriella, 2005. "Economic reactions to public finance consolidation: a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    5. Shelton, Cameron A., 2008. "Addendum: The aging population and the size of the welfare state: Is there a puzzle? [Journal of Public Economics 92 (2008) 625-671]," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 2282-2283, October.
    6. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    7. K. Mc Morrow & W. Roeger, 1999. "The economic consequences of ageing populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 138, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Phillip Swagel, 2002. "The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 900-918, August.
    10. Axel Börsch-Supan, 2003. "Labor Market Effects of Population Aging," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 5-44, August.
    11. Margarita Sapozhnikov & Robert K. Triest, 2007. "Population aging, labor demand, and the structure of wages," Working Papers 07-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    12. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
    13. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2008. "Dynamic Globalization and Its Potentially Alarming Prospects for Low-Wage Workers," NBER Working Papers 14527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11049 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2007. "Bias in dynamic panel estimation with fixed effects, incidental trends and cross section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 162-188, March.
    16. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2003. "Economic and financial market consequences of ageing populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 182, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    17. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Howard J. Shatz, 1994. "Trade and Jobs in Manufacturing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 1-84.
    18. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    19. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
    20. Richard Kohl & Paul O'Brien, 1998. "The Macroeconomics of Ageing, Pensions and Savings: A Survey," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 200, OECD Publishing.
    21. Robert Rowthorn & Ramana Ramaswamy, 1999. "Growth, Trade, and Deindustrialization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-2.
    22. Maria Gabriella Briotti, 2005. "Economic reactions to public finance consolidation - a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    23. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    24. Melanie Lührmann, 2005. "Population Aging and the Demand for Goods & Services," MEA discussion paper series 05095, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    25. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
    26. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    27. Windmeijer, Frank, 2000. "Moment conditions for fixed effects count data models with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 21-24, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alfred Garloff & Carsten Pohl & Norbert Schanne, 2013. "Do small labor market entry cohorts reduce unemployment?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(15), pages 379-406.
    2. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Christian H Ebeke, 2016. "The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity," IMF Working Papers 2016/238, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Lewandowski, Piotr & Keister, Roma & Hardy, Wojciech & Górka, Szymon, 2020. "Ageing of routine jobs in Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    4. Yingzhu Yang & Rong Zheng & Lexiang Zhao, 2021. "Population Aging, Health Investment and Economic Growth: Based on a Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. N Renuga Nagarajan & Mineko Wada & Mei Lan Fang & Andrew Sixsmith, 2019. "Defining organizational contributions to sustaining an ageing workforce: a bibliometric review," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 337-361, September.
    7. Gindra Kasnauskiene & Karol Michnevic, 2017. "Contribution of increased life expectancy to economic growth: evidence from CEE countries," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 6(2), pages 82-99, November.
    8. Makoto Hirono, 2021. "Demographic change, human capital accumulation, and sectoral employment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 165-185, March.
    9. Cylus, Jonathan & Al Tayara, Lynn, 2021. "Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: Does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    10. Pohl, Carsten, 2013. "Demografie, Erwerbsbeteiligung und Erwerbslosigkeit in Nordrhein-Westfalen : Analyse der Zusammenhänge zwischen 1996 und 2011," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Nordrhein-Westfalen 201301, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    11. Liudmila Reshetnikova & Natalia Boldyreva & Maria Perevalova & Svetlana Kalayda & Zhanna Pisarenko, 2021. "Conditions for the Growth of the “Silver Economy” in the Context of Sustainable Development Goals: Peculiarities of Russia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-18, August.
    12. Cylus, Jonathan & Al Tayara, Lynn, 2021. "Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112421, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Geng, Yong & Liu, Wei & Wu, Yuzhao, 2021. "How do zombie firms affect China’s industrial upgrading?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 79-94.
    14. Mollick, André Varella, 2012. "Income inequality in the U.S.: The Kuznets hypothesis revisited," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 127-144.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ulrich Thießen & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Does Aging Influence Sectoral Employment Shares?: Evidence from Panel Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 785, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Ulrich Thießen, 2007. "Aging and Structural Change," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 742, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Jui‐Chung Yang, 2018. "Half‐panel jackknife fixed‐effects estimation of linear panels with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 816-836, September.
    4. Ignace De Vos & Gerdie Everaert & Ilse Ruyssen, 2015. "Bootstrap-based bias correction and inference for dynamic panels with fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 15(4), pages 986-1018, December.
    5. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
    6. Gouriéroux, Christian & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Yu, Jun, 2010. "Indirect inference for dynamic panel models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 68-77, July.
    7. Abonazel, Mohamed R., 2016. "Bias Correction Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects," MPRA Paper 70628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Alvarez, Javier & Arellano, Manuel, 2022. "Robust likelihood estimation of dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 21-61.
    9. Vergne, Clémence, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 63-77, March.
    10. Carmela D'Avino, 2015. "Net Interoffice Accounts of Global Banks: The Role of Domestic Funding," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-17, June.
    11. Gupta, Sanjeev & Liu, Estelle X. & Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 2016. "Now or later? The political economy of public investment in democracies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 101-114.
    12. Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
    13. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2015. "Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-49.
    14. Lee, Yoonseok, 2012. "Bias in dynamic panel models under time series misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 54-60.
    15. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Nuscheler, 2011. "The political economy of the German Lander deficits: weak governments meet strong finance ministers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(19), pages 2399-2415.
    16. Vinayagathasan, Thanabalasingam, 2013. "Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-41.
    17. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. García-Mainar , Inmaculada & Montuenga-Gómez , Víctor M., 2012. "Wage dynamics in Spain: evidence from individual data (1994-2001)," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 24, pages 41-58.
    19. Geert Dhaene & Koen Jochmans, 2011. "An Adjusted profile likelihood for non-stationary panel data models with fixed effects," Working Papers hal-01073732, HAL.
    20. Mali Chivakul & Bernhard Kassner, 2019. "Can Consumption Growth in China Keep Up as Investment Slows?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 381-412, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:244-260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.