IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/1550.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Indirect Inference for Dynamic Panel Models

Author

Listed:

Abstract

It is well-known that maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the autoregressive parameter of a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects is inconsistent under fixed time series sample size (T) and large cross section sample size (N) asymptotics. The estimation bias is particularly relevant in practical applications when T is small and the autoregressive parameter is close to unity. The present paper proposes a general, computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on indirect inference (Gouriéroux et al., 1993), shows unbiasedness and analyzes efficiency. The method is implemented in a simple linear dynamic panel model, but has wider applicability and can, for instance, be easily extended to more complicated frameworks such as nonlinear models. Monte Carlo studies show that the proposed procedure achieves substantial bias reductions with only mild increases in variance, thereby substantially reducing root mean square errors. The method is compared with certain consistent estimators and bias-corrected ML estimators previously proposed in the literature and is shown to have superior .nite sample properties to GMM and the bias-corrected ML of Hahn and Kuersteiner (2002). Finite sample performance is compared with that of a recent estimator proposed by Han and Phillips (2005).

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gourieroux & Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2006. "Indirect Inference for Dynamic Panel Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1550, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1550
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d15/d1550.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bun, Maurice J.G. & Carree, Martin A., 2005. "Bias-Corrected Estimation in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 200-210, April.
    2. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-952, July.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2009. "Simulation-Based Estimation of Contingent-Claims Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3669-3705, September.
    5. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 415-429, May.
    6. Tripathi, Gautam, 2000. "Econometric Methods," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 139-142, February.
    7. Andersen, Torben G., 2000. "Simulation-Based Econometric Methods," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 131-138, February.
    8. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, July.
    9. Monfort, Alain, 1996. "A Reappraisal of Misspecified Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 597-619, October.
    10. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October.
    11. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    12. Bruins, Marianne & Duffy, James A. & Keane, Michael P. & Smith, Anthony A., 2018. "Generalized indirect inference for discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 177-203.
    13. Bun, Maurice J.G. & Kiviet, Jan F., 2006. "The effects of dynamic feedbacks on LS and MM estimator accuracy in panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 409-444, June.
    14. Han, Chirok & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2010. "Gmm Estimation For Dynamic Panels With Fixed Effects And Strong Instruments At Unity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(01), pages 119-151, February.
    15. Jinyong Hahn & Guido Kuersteiner, 2002. "Asymptotically Unbiased Inference for a Dynamic Panel Model with Fixed Effects when Both "n" and "T" Are Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1639-1657, July.
    16. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2007. "Bias in dynamic panel estimation with fixed effects, incidental trends and cross section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 162-188, March.
    17. Garcia, René & Renault, Eric & Veredas, David, 2011. "Estimation of stable distributions by indirect inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 325-337, April.
    18. Vaart,A. W. van der, 2000. "Asymptotic Statistics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521784504.
    19. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    20. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
    21. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 63-84, Suppl. De.
    22. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 85-118, Suppl. De.
    23. Ziliak, James P, 1997. "Efficient Estimation with Panel Data When Instruments Are Predetermined: An Empirical Comparison of Moment-Condition Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 419-431, October.
    24. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Jinyong Hahn & Whitney Newey, 2004. "Jackknife and Analytical Bias Reduction for Nonlinear Panel Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1295-1319, July.
    26. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    27. Chiara Monfardini, 1998. "Estimating stochastic volatility models through indirect inference," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 113-128.
    28. Hahn, Jinyong, 1997. "Efficient estimation of panel data models with sequential moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-21, July.
    29. Orcutt, Guy H & Winokur, Herbert S, Jr, 1969. "First Order Autoregression: Inference, Estimation, and Prediction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(1), pages 1-14, January.
    30. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    31. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-165, January.
    32. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autoregression; Bias reduction; Dynamic panel; Fixed effects; Indirect inference;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Matthew Regan). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.