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Aging and Structural Change

  • Ulrich Thießen

Many studies analyzed in depth how aging affects aggregate economic performance. But analyses of these effects on the employment structure are scarce and they do not consider that consumption patterns, the supply of goods and services, and also sectoral labor productivity are all likely to adjust to aging and will change. Hence, regression analysis of sectoral employment shares is proposed that controls for aging. For a large panel of countries and a long time period it is found that aging indeed affects relative employment of most sectors statistically highly significant either positive or negative. We also conclude that aging tends to accelerate ongoing structural change. This enables to derive specific policy implications. The approach could thus become a new method in forecasting employment and other effects of aging.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.74827.de/dp742.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 742.

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Length: 20 p.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp742
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  1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Heiss, Florian & Winter, Joachim, 2000. "Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return," Discussion Papers 589, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  2. Axel B�Rsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
  3. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 32, McMaster University.
  4. Raiser, Martin & Schaffer, Mark E & Schuchhardt, Johannes, 2003. "Benchmarking Structural Change in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 3820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
  6. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Aging and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 02010, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  7. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
  8. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Düzgün, Ismail & Weiss, Matthias, 2005. "Altern und Produktivität: Zum Stand der Forschung," MEA discussion paper series 05073, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  9. Melanie Lührmann, 2005. "Population Aging and the Demand for Goods & Services," MEA discussion paper series 05095, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  10. Roland Dohrn & Ullrich Heilemann, 1996. "The Chenery hypothesis and structural change in Eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(2), pages 411-425, October.
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  13. Boes,Dieter & von Weizsaecker,Robert, 1988. "Economic consequences of an aging population," Discussion Paper Serie A 191, University of Bonn, Germany.
  14. Axel Börsch-Supan, 2003. "Labor Market Effects of Population Aging," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 5-44, 08.
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