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How production networks amplify economic growth

Author

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  • James McNerney

    (a Center for International Development, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02139;; b Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, MIT, Cambridge, MA 02142;; c Complexity Science Hub Vienna, A-1080 Vienna, Austria;)

  • Charles Savoie

    (d Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom;)

  • Francesco Caravelli

    (e Theoretical Division (T-4 and Center for Nonlinear Studies), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545;)

  • Vasco M. Carvalho

    (f Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9DD, United Kingdom;; g The Cambridge-INET (Institute for New Economic Thinking) Institute, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9DD, United Kingdom;; h The Alan Turing Institute, London NW1 2DB, United Kingdom;; i Center for Economic and Policy Research, London EC1V 0DX, United Kingdom;)

  • J. Doyne Farmer

    (j Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3LB, United Kingdom;; k Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501)

Abstract

Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other goods, selling the product to households or other producers. We show how this network amplifies the effects of technological improvements as they propagate along chains of production. Longer production chains for an industry bias it toward faster price reduction, and longer production chains for a country bias it toward faster growth. These predictions are in good agreement with data and improve with the passage of time, demonstrating a key influence of production chains in price change and output growth over the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • James McNerney & Charles Savoie & Francesco Caravelli & Vasco M. Carvalho & J. Doyne Farmer, 2021. "How production networks amplify economic growth," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(1), pages 2106031118-, 00.
  • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:119:y:2021:p:e2106031118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Bartolucci & Fabio Caccioli & Francesco Caravelli & Pierpaolo Vivo, 2020. "Upstreamness and downstreamness in input-output analysis from local and aggregate information," Papers 2009.06350, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    2. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    3. Olivera Kostoska & Viktor Stojkoski & Ljupco Kocarev, 2020. "On the structure of the world economy: An absorbing Markov chain approach," Papers 2003.05204, arXiv.org.
    4. Pichler, Anton & Pangallo, Marco & del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria & Lafond, François & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2020. "In and out of lockdown: Propagation of supply and demand shocks in a dynamic input-output model," INET Oxford Working Papers 2021-18, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Feb 2021.

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