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Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty

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  • Matthieu Bussière
  • Laurent Ferrara
  • Juliana Milovich

Abstract

The weakness in business investment in several advanced economies since the global financial crisis has prompted debate over the main drivers behind this trend and the possible policy responses, if any. This Rue de la Banque summarises an empirical investigation of the main determinants of business investment since 1995 for a panel of twenty-two advanced economies. In the short term, while measures of capital cost seem to play a modest role, low expected demand explains most of the weakness in business investment, with uncertainty also making a contribution. However, systematically over-optimistic business investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Juliana Milovich, 2017. "Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 44, may..
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:rueban:2017:44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bfr:rueban:2017:44 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    3. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Juliana Milovich, 2017. "Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 44, may..
    4. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Investmentless Growth: An Empirical Investigation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 89-190.
    5. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-20, CEPII research center.
    6. Bertrand Candelon & Laurent Ferrara & Marc Joëts, 2016. "Global Financial Interconnectedness: A nonlinear Assessment of the Uncertainty Channel," Post-Print hal-01667093, HAL.
    7. Bertrand Candelon & Laurent Ferrara & Marc Joëts, 2016. "Global Financial Interconnectedness: A nonlinear Assessment of the Uncertainty Channel," Post-Print hal-01667093, HAL.
    8. Gutierrez, German & Philippon, Thomas, 2017. "Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 12536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    11. repec:wfo:wstudy:59156 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Renata Pasalicova, 2017. "Firm Investment, Financial Constraints and Monetary Transmission: An Investigation with Czech Firm-Level Data," Working Papers 2017/16, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    13. Leslie G. Manison & Savvakis C. Savvides, 2016. "Towards Sustainable Growth: Rebuilding the Foundations of the Cyprus Economy," Development Discussion Papers 2016-07, JDI Executive Programs.
    14. Bertrand Candelon & Laurent Ferrara & Marc Joëts, 2016. "Global Financial Interconnectedness: A nonlinear Assessment of the Uncertainty Channel," Post-Print hal-01667093, HAL.
    15. Rose Cunningham & Christian Friedrich & Kristina Hess & Min Jae Kim, 2017. "Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices," Discussion Papers 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    16. Kim Sujin, 2018. "Investment Puzzle: Deeper Roots," Working Papers id:12433, eSocialSciences.
    17. Bertrand Candelon & Laurent Ferrara & Marc Joëts, 2016. "Global Financial Interconnectedness: A nonlinear Assessment of the Uncertainty Channel," Post-Print hal-01667097, HAL.
    18. Lawless, Martina & O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2018. "Estimating an SME investment gap and the contribution of financing frictions," Papers WP589, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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