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Business Uncertainty and Investment: Evidence from Japanese companies

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  • MORIKAWA Masayuki

Abstract

This study, using data from a representative quarterly business survey in Japan, constructs measures of business uncertainty and presents empirical findings about the time-series properties of business uncertainty measures, and runs simple regressions to analyze the relationship between these measures and companies' investments. The analysis results show, first, that business uncertainty heightened at the time of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but the effect of an increase in the consumption tax rate in 2014 on business uncertainty was small. Second, manufacturing and small companies tend to face higher business uncertainty than non-manufacturing and large companies. Third, we detect a negative association between business uncertainty and investments. Finally, the uncertainty measures constructed from micro data of the business survey have an advantage over the forecast errors calculated from the publicly available aggregated data. These results suggest the importance of maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment and of avoiding unpredictable conduct of economic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "Business Uncertainty and Investment: Evidence from Japanese companies," Discussion papers 16014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:16014
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    Cited by:

    1. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "How Uncertain Are Economic Policies? Evidence from a survey on Japanese firms," Policy Discussion Papers 16008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2017. "Uncertainty over Production Forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly firm survey data," Discussion papers 17081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "How uncertain are economic policies? New evidence from a firm survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-122.
    4. repec:bla:pacecr:v:21:y:2016:i:5:p:527-540 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2018. "Measuring Firm-level Uncertainty: New evidence from a business outlook survey," Discussion papers 18030, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Binding, Garret & Dibiasi, Andreas, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and firm investment plans evidence from Swiss survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-27.
    7. repec:spr:eurasi:v:8:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s40821-017-0079-3 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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