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Asymmetric Investment Responses to Firm-Specific Uncertainty

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  • Buchholz, Manuel
  • Tonzer, Lena
  • Berner, Julian

Abstract

This paper analyzes how firm-specific uncertainty affects firms' propensity to invest. We measure firm-specific uncertainty as firms' absolute forecast errors derived from survey data of German manufacturing firms over 2007-11. In line with the literature, our empirical findings reveal a negative impact of firm-specific uncertainty on investment. Yet, further results show that the investment response is asymmetric depending on the size and direction of the forecast error: The investment propensity declines significantly if the realized situation is worse than expected. However, firms do not adjust their investment if the realized situation is better than expected, which suggests that the uncertainty effect counteracts the positive effect due to unexpectedly favorable business conditions. This can be one explanation behind the phenomenon of slow recovery in the aftermath of financial crises. Additional results show that the forecast error is highly concurrent with an ex-ante measure of firm-specific uncertainty that we obtain from the survey data. Furthermore, the effect of firm-specific uncertainty is enforced for firms that face a tighter financing situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Buchholz, Manuel & Tonzer, Lena & Berner, Julian, 2016. "Asymmetric Investment Responses to Firm-Specific Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145563, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145563
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Ćorić & Vladimir Šimić, 2021. "Economic disasters and aggregate investment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3087-3124, December.
    2. Christian Grimme & Marc Stöckli, 2017. "Makroökonomische Unsicherheit in Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(06), pages 41-50, March.
    3. Meinen, Philipp & Roehe, Oke, 2017. "On measuring uncertainty and its impact on investment: Cross-country evidence from the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 161-179.
    4. repec:ces:ifofor:v:19:y:2018:i:1:p:46-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Christian Grimme, 2017. "Messung der Unternehmensunsicherheit in Deutschland – das ifo Streuungsmaß," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(15), pages 19-25, August.
    6. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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