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Uncertainty and International Banking

Author

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  • Tonzer, Lena
  • Buch, Claudia M.
  • Buchholz, Manuel

Abstract

We develop a new measure of uncertainty derived from bank-level data. We apply the measure of firm-level uncertainty developed by Bloom and others (2012) to banking. Uncertainty is measured as the cross-sectional dispersion of shocks to banking-sector specific variables. We then analyze how uncertainty in banking affects lending by domestic and foreign-owned banks. We find that, first, higher uncertainty in banking has negative effects on bank lending. Second, the effect is heterogeneous across banks: Lending by banks which are better capitalized and have higher liquidity buffers tends to be affected less. Third, foreign-owned banks do not react differently to uncertainty in the host country compared to domestically-owned banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Tonzer, Lena & Buch, Claudia M. & Buchholz, Manuel, 2015. "Uncertainty and International Banking," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113072, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113072
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom., 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    2. Nakane, Marcio I. & Weintraub, Daniela B., 2005. "Bank privatization and productivity: Evidence for Brazil," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8-9), pages 2259-2289, August.
    3. Cetorelli, Nicola & Goldberg, Linda S., 2012. "Liquidity management of U.S. global banks: Internal capital markets in the great recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 299-311.
    4. Stijn Claessens & Neeltje Horen, 2014. "Foreign Banks: Trends and Impact," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 295-326, February.
    5. Murillo Campello & Erasmo Giambona & John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2011. "Liquidity Management and Corporate Investment During a Financial Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1944-1979.
    6. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2013. "Running for the Exit? International Bank Lending During a Financial Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 244-285.
    7. repec:ebd:wpaper:142 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Buch, Claudia M. & Koch, Cathérine Tahmee & Koetter, Michael, 2009. "Margins of international banking: is there a productivity pecking order in banking, too?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Nick Bloom, 2007. "Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 250-255, May.
    10. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    11. Ralph Haas & Iman Lelyveld, 2014. "Multinational Banks and the Global Financial Crisis: Weathering the Perfect Storm?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 333-364, February.
    12. Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
    13. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    14. Cornett, Marcia Millon & McNutt, Jamie John & Strahan, Philip E. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2011. "Liquidity risk management and credit supply in the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 297-312, August.
    15. repec:dgr:kubcen:2013040 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    17. Giannetti, Mariassunta & Laeven, Luc, 2012. "The flight home effect: Evidence from the syndicated loan market during financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 23-43.
    18. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2018. "Cyclical Changes in Firm Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 317-349, March.
    19. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2012. "International Shock Transmission after the Lehman Brothers Collapse: Evidence from Syndicated Lending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 231-237, May.
    20. Degryse, Hans & Kim, Moshe & Ongena, Steven, 2009. "Microeconometrics of Banking Methods, Applications, and Results," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195340471.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Grimme, Christian, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank vs. Bond Finance," MPRA Paper 79852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Buchholz, Manuel & Schmidt, Kirsten & Tonzer, Lena, 2017. "Do conventional monetary policy instruments matter in unconventional times?," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
    4. Nils Jannsen & Galina Potjagailo & Maik H. Wolters, 2019. "Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 81-126, October.
    5. Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge C.N. & Tonzer, Lena, 2017. "Central bank transparency and cross-border banking," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-30.
    6. Tonzer, Lena, 2017. "Uncertainty, financial crises, and subjective well-being," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Michael Pedersen, 2016. "Pass-Through, Expectations, and Risks. What Affects Chilean Banks’ Interest Rates?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 780, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Manuel Buchholz & Lena Tonzer & J. Berner, 2016. "Asymmetric Investment Responses to Firm-specific Uncertainty," IWH Discussion Papers 7, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lenza, Michele & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Interbank rate uncertainty and bank lending," Working Paper Series 2311, European Central Bank.
    10. Santiago Barraza & Andrea Civelli, 2019. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Supply of Business Loans," Working Papers 134, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2019.
    11. repec:zbw:iwhdps:7-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Daniel Dejuán & Corinna Ghirelli, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and investment in Spain," Working Papers 1848, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    13. Buchholz, Manuel & Tonzer, Lena & Berner, Julian, 2016. "Asymmetric Investment Responses to Firm-specific Uncertainty," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. repec:bis:biscgf:60 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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