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Cyclical changes in firm volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuel De Veirman
  • Andrew Levin

Abstract

We estimate changes in firm-specific volatility in sales and earnings growth of US firms. We do so using an approach which better captures firm-specific volatility than commonly used dispersion measures do. Our results do not lend strong support to the common view that firm-specific volatility is counter-cyclical. The role of firmspecific volatility in explaining aggregate fluctuations is empirically very limited. This is evidence against the implication of irreversibility and financial accelerator theories that increases in firm-specific volatility cause macroeconomic downturns. Our measure also provides evidence on trends in firm volatility. Earlier findings of a trend increase in the volatility of publicly traded firms are completely overturned when we control for changes in sample composition. At the firm level, the 2007-2009 recession did not end the Great Moderation.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2014. "Cyclical changes in firm volatility," Working Papers 408, DNB.
    • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:408
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    Cited by:

    1. Calmès, Christian & Théoret, Raymond, 2014. "Bank systemic risk and macroeconomic shocks: Canadian and U.S. evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 388-402.
    2. Claudia M Buch & Manuel Buchholz & Lena Tonzer, 2015. "Uncertainty, Bank Lending, and Bank-Level Heterogeneity," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(4), pages 919-954, November.
    3. Mona Yaghoubi & Michael O’Connor Keefe, 2018. "The Influence of Investment Volatility on Capital Structure and Cash Holdings," Working Papers in Economics 18/20, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    4. Berner, Julian & Buchholz, Manuel & Tonzer, Lena, 2020. "Asymmetric investment responses to firm-specific forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Cook, Douglas O. & Kieschnick, Robert & Moussawi, Rabih, 2019. "Operating leases, operating leverage, operational inflexibility and sticky costs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    6. Cook, Douglas O. & Kieschnick, Robert & Moussawi, Rabih, 2021. "Operating lease obligations and corporate cash management," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. De Veirman, Emmanuel & Levin, Andrew T., 2012. "When did firms become more different? Time-varying firm-specific volatility in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 578-601.
    8. Wei, Hao & Liu, Yuan, 2025. "Commodity import price rising and production stability of Chinese firms," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 434-448.
    9. Daisoon Kim & Yoonsoo Lee, 2019. "Entry, Exit, and Productivity Dispersion," 2019 Meeting Papers 927, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Young Gak Kim & Hyeog Ug Kwon, 2017. "Aggregate and Firm-level Volatility in the Japanese Economy," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 158-172, June.
    11. David Vidal-Tomás & Alba Ruiz-Buforn & Omar Blanco-Arroyo & Simone Alfarano, 2022. "A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Growth and Profit Rate Distribution: The Spanish Case," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, March.
    12. Caglayan, Mustafa & Mateut, Simona & Zanchettin, Piercarlo, 2024. "Political affiliation, cash flow volatility, and debt maturity in China," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(5).
    13. Stelios Giannoulakis, 2021. "Uncertainty, firm entry, and investment dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(5), pages 623-642, November.
    14. Distante, Roberta & Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2013. "Asymmetry Reversals and the Business Cycle," Economy and Society 151531, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    15. Paula Garda & Volker Ziemann, 2014. "Economic Policies and Microeconomic Stability: A Literature Review and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1115, OECD Publishing.
    16. Chen, Chongyang & Kieschnick, Robert, 2018. "Bank credit and corporate working capital management," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 579-596.
    17. Giacomo Candian & Mikhail Dmitriev, 2020. "Risk Aversion, Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Risk, and the Financial Accelerator," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 299-322, July.
    18. Robert Faff & Steven Cahan, 2013. "Mickey Mouse and the IDioT principle for assessing research contribution: discussion of ‘Is the relationship between investment and conditional cash flow volatility ambiguous, asymmetric or both?’," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(4), pages 949-960, December.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2014. "Risk Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 27-65, January.
    20. Yaghoubi, Mona, 2024. "Executive characteristics as moderators: Exploring the impact of geopolitical risk on capital structure decisions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    21. Keefe, Michael O’Connor & Nguyen, Phoebe Huyen, 2023. "The influence of cash flow volatility on firm use of debt of different maturities or zero-debt: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 684-700.
    22. Buchholz, Manuel & Tonzer, Lena & Berner, Julian, 2016. "Asymmetric Investment Responses to Firm-specific Uncertainty," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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