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Aggregate and Firm-Level Volatility in the Japanese Economy

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  • YoungGak KIM
  • Hyeog Ug KWON

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the volatility of sales at the firm and the aggregate level using the longitudinal dataset of the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations (FSSC). The main findings are as follows: (1) Firm-level volatility decreased until the mid-1990s but then increased again. (2) Aggregate-level volatility steadily decreased until the mid-1990s and has remained low since. (3) Decomposing the total variance of the growth rate of aggregated sales, we find that the divergence between firm-level and aggregate-level volatility is caused by the drastic decline and subsequent low level of the covariance of sales growth between different firms and the increase in individual firms' volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • YoungGak KIM & Hyeog Ug KWON, 2012. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Volatility in the Japanese Economy," Discussion papers 12030, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:12030
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    1. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
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    5. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
    6. De Veirman, Emmanuel & Levin, Andrew T., 2012. "When did firms become more different? Time-varying firm-specific volatility in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 578-601.
    7. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2011. "Cyclical changes in firm volatility," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    8. Yasushi Hamao & Jianping Mei & Yexiao Xu, 2007. "Unique Symptoms of Japanese Stagnation: An Equity Market Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 901-923, June.
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    11. Kimura, Takeshi & Shiotani, Kyosuke, 2009. "Stabilized business cycles with increased output volatility at high frequencies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-19, March.
    12. Chun, Hyunbae & Kim, Jung-Wook & Morck, Randall & Yeung, Bernard, 2008. "Creative destruction and firm-specific performance heterogeneity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 109-135, July.
    13. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2017. "Dispersion and Volatility of TFPQ in Service Industries," Discussion papers 17088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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