IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v70y2017i06p41-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macoeconomic Uncertainty in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Grimme
  • Marc Stöckli

Abstract

The article presents a new method for measuring macroeconomic uncertainty for Germany. The measure presented here is significantly less volatile compared to the alternatives proposed thus far in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Grimme & Marc Stöckli, 2017. "Macoeconomic Uncertainty in Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(06), pages 41-50, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:06:p:41-50
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2017-06-grimme-stoeckli-unsicherheit-2017-03-23.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    2. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
    3. Buchholz, Manuel & Tonzer, Lena & Berner, Julian, 2016. "Asymmetric Investment Responses to Firm-Specific Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145563, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    5. Berg Tim Oliver, 2015. "Time Varying Fiscal Multipliers in Germany," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 13-46, April.
    6. Benjamin Born & Sebastian Breuer & Steffen Elstner, 2018. "Uncertainty and the Great Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(5), pages 951-971, October.
    7. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    8. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying business volatility and the price setting of firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 82-99.
    9. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2019. "Business Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In Germany," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1442-1470, June.
    10. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    11. Adina Popescu & Frank Rafael Smets, 2010. "Uncertainty, Risk-taking, and the Business Cycle in Germany," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(4), pages 596-626, December.
    12. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    13. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 173-206, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ces:ifofor:v:19:y:2018:i:1:p:46-50 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ces:ifofor:v:19:y:2018:i:1:p:46-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    3. Christian Grimme, 2017. "Measurement of Corporate Uncertainty in Germany – the ifo Dispersion Measure," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(15), pages 19-25, August.
    4. Chris Redl, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 361-380, September.
    5. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    7. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    8. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2019. "Business Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In Germany," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1442-1470, June.
    10. Reif Magnus, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and forecasting macroeconomic aggregates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-20, April.
    11. Meinen, Philipp & Roehe, Oke, 2017. "On measuring uncertainty and its impact on investment: Cross-country evidence from the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 161-179.
    12. Grimme, Christian, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank vs. Bond Finance," MPRA Paper 79852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    14. Salzmann, Leonard, 2019. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," EconStor Preprints 206691, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Christian Grimme & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "The Impact of the British Vote in Favour of a Brexit on the German Economy in 2016/17," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(13), pages 38-43, July.
    16. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    17. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Danilo Cascaldi‐Garcia & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2021. "News and Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 779-811, June.
    19. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Tino Berger & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2023. "Cyclical consumption," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-064/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    21. Caldara, Dario & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Gilchrist, Simon & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 185-207.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:06:p:41-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.