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ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen

Author

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  • Stefan Sauer
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Das vorliegende Handbuch soll einen Überblick über die Befragungen des ifo Instituts sowie die daraus resultierenden Konjunkturindikatoren und deren Verwendung für die Prognose volkswirtschaftlicher Kennzahlen liefern. Des Weiteren ist es als Interpretationshilfe für den Umgang mit den zahlreichen Konjunkturindikatoren sowie als Leitfaden für Wissenschaftler, die das aus den Umfragen gewonnene Datenmaterial für ihre Forschungsprojekte nutzen, gedacht. Das Buch ist dabei so aufgebaut, dass jedes Kapitel für sich separat lesbar und verständlich ist. Dafür werden alle Befragungen inklusive der jeweils verwendeten Methoden detailliert beschrieben. Anschließend werden ausgewählte Umfrageergebnisse vorgestellt und auf ihre Aussagekraft sowie Potentiale für die Konjunkturforschung und sonstige wissenschaftliche Analysen durchleuchtet. Der Fokus wird dabei zunächst ausgiebig auf die ifo Konjunkturumfragen gerichtet, die das ifo Institut bereits seit dem Jahr 1949 monatlich erhebt. Das ifo Geschäftsklima Deutschland, das als Gesamtaggregat aus den Ergebnissen der Konjunkturumfragen in den Wirtschaftsbereichen Verarbeitendes Gewerbe, Bauhauptgewerbe, Groß- und Einzelhandel sowie dem Dienstleistungsgewerbe gebildet wird, hat sich dabei als der in der Öffentlichkeit am meisten beachtete Konjunkturindikator herauskristallisiert. Darüber hinaus haben sich aber auch andere Ergebnisse, wie das ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer oder die ifo Exporterwartungen, als verlässliche Frühindikatoren für Konjunkturanalysen und -prognosen erwiesen. Der World Economic Survey, die ifo Investitionsumfragen, die ifo Personalleiterbefragung, die ifo Managerbefragung sowie die Konjunkturumfrage im Versicherungsgewerbe runden die Befragungsaktivitäten des ifo Instituts ab und liefern zahlreiche weitere aussagekräftige Ergebnisse, die umfassende Analysepotentiale für die Konjunkturforschung bieten.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:88
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    Cited by:

    1. Samuel Muehlemann & Harald Pfeifer & Bernhard Wittek, 2020. "The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: Estimating the impact of Covid-19," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0171, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    2. Piopiunik, Marc & Schwerdt, Guido & Simon, Lisa & Woessmann, Ludger, 2020. "Skills, signals, and employability: An experimental investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Konjunkturumfragen im Fokus: Deutsche Wirtschaft in Corona-Schockstarre," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 44-47, April.
    4. Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "Monatlicher Nowcast der realisierten Kurzarbeit auf Basis von Unternehmensbefragungen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 114.
    5. Stefan Sauer, 2020. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen: Ein Überblick über die verfügbaren Zeitreihen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(02), pages 45-48, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturforschung; Unternehmensbefragungen; Konjunkturindikatoren; Konjunkturprognose; ifo Konjunkturumfragen; World Economic Survey; Befragungsdesign und -methodik; LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center;

    JEL classification:

    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • L70 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - General
    • L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General
    • L90 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - General

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