Assessing the Forecast Properties of the CESifo World Economic Climate Indicator: Evidence for the Euro Area
This paper evaluates short-term forecasts of real GDP in the Euro area derived from the CESifo Economic Climate indicator (WES) in terms of forecast accuracy. We compare the forecast properties of the WES with those of monthly composite indicators. Considering the WES is interesting because (i) it is exclusively based on the assessment of economic experts about the current economic situation, and (ii) it is timely released within the quarter on a quarterly basis. The empirical analysis is carried out under full information, which means that the competing monthly indicators are known for the entire quarter, and under incomplete information. Our findings exhibit that the forecast power of the WES is comparatively proper.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 München|
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2005.
"Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 785-813, December.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth," Working Papers 235, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro Area Inflation and GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roy Batchelor, 2001. "How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 225-235.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1992.
"Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance,"
NBER Working Papers
3965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 11-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Stephen K. McNees, 1987. "Consensus forecasts: tyranny of the majority?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 15-21.
- Marie Diron, 2008.
"Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
- Diron, Marie, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 0622, European Central Bank.
- Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010.
"Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
- Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli, 2007. "The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 77-94.
- Mario Forno & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti, 2003.
"Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator Of The Euro Area Business Cycle,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2003
242, Society for Computational Economics.
- Altissimo, Filippo & Bassanetti, Antonio & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rünstler, Gerhard & Sédillot, Franck, 2003. "Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data," Working Paper Series 0276, European Central Bank.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Tatiana Kirsanova, 2002. "Credibility of the Russian Stabilisation Programme in 1995-98," NIESR Discussion Papers 193, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983.
"Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,"
NBER Working Papers
1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Franck Sédillot & Nigel Pain, 2003. "Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in Selected OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 364, OECD Publishing.
- Anna Stangl, 2007. "World Economic Survey," Chapters, in: Handbook of Survey-Based Business Cycle Analysis, chapter 5 Edward Elgar Publishing.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.