IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-08c50137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using business survey in industrial and services sector to nowcast GDP growth:The French case

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Darne

    () (University of Paris 10 Nanterre and Banque de France)

Abstract

This paper proposes new bridge equations for the short-term French GDP forecasting. This tool allows to nowcast the quarterly GDP growth in France for the current quarter, based on the monthly business surveys in the industrial and services sectors. We use an automatic model selection procedure which brings a robust, clear and systematic framework for selecting variables. The forecasting performance for the different selected models is evaluated and we show that taking into account the business surveys in the services sector can be useful for nowcasting GDP growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Darne, 2008. "Using business survey in industrial and services sector to nowcast GDP growth:The French case," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(32), pages 1-8.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08c50137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2008/Volume3/EB-08C50137A.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    3. Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
    4. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    5. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    6. Diron, Marie, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 622, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dominique Guégan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 508-518.
    2. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. repec:eee:touman:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:213-223 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08c50137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.