A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques
The aim of this paper is to introduce a new methodology to forecast the monthly economic indicators used in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) modelling in order to improve the forecasting accuracy. Our approach is based on multivariate k-nearest neighbors method and radial basis function method for which we provide new theoretical results. We apply these two methods to compute the quarter GDP on the Euro-zone, comparing our approach, with GDP obtained when we estimate the monthly indicators with a linear model, which is often used as a benchmark.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2010|
|Publication status:||Published in Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2010.13 - ISSN : 1955-611X. 2010|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00461711|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Darne, 2008. "Using business survey in industrial and services sector to nowcast GDP growth:The French case," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(32), pages 1-8.
- Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:32:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
- Diron, Marie, 2006.
"Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data,"
Working Paper Series
0622, European Central Bank.
- Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
- Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009.
"The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables : One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting,"
Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 09050, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Dec 2009.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008.
"Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: a model comparison for German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: A model comparison for German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 6708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Adonis Yatchew, 1998. "Nonparametric Regression Techniques in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 669-721, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00461711. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.