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A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to introduce a new methodology to forecast the monthly economic indicators used in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) modelling in order to improve the forecasting accuracy. Our approach is based on multivariate k-nearest neighbors method and radial basis function method for which we provide new theoretical results. We apply these two methods to compute the quarter GDP on the Euro-zone, comparing our approach, with GDP obtained when we estimate the monthly indicators with a linear model, which is often used as a benchmark

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  • Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:10013
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    1. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables : One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00423871, HAL.
    2. Dominique Guegan, 2003. "Les chaos en finance: approche statistique," Post-Print halshs-00180849, HAL.
    3. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    4. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: a model comparison for German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,34, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "A parametric estimation method for dynamic factor models of large dimensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 208-238, March.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:32:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Olivier Darne, 2008. "Using business survey in industrial and services sector to nowcast GDP growth:The French case," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(32), pages 1-8.
    8. Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
    9. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables : One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Post-Print halshs-00423871, HAL.
    10. Adonis Yatchew, 1998. "Nonparametric Regression Techniques in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 669-721, June.
    11. Diron, Marie, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 622, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00511979, HAL.
    2. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10065, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00511979, HAL.
    4. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00505165, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    k-nearest neighbors method; radial basis function method; non-parametric forecasts; GDP; Euro-area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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