A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques
The aim of this paper is to introduce a new methodology to forecast the monthly economic indicators used in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) modelling in order to improve the forecasting accuracy. Our approach is based on multivariate k-nearest neighbors method and radial basis function method for which we provide new theoretical results. We apply these two methods to compute the quarter GDP on the Euro-zone, comparing our approach, with GDP obtained when we estimate the monthly indicators with a linear model, which is often used as a benchmark.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Publication status:||Published in Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, 2010, 30 (1), pp.508-518|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00460472|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
References listed on IDEAS
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- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2007.
"Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: a model comparison for German GDP,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2007,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: A model comparison for German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 6708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:32:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
- Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables : One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00423871, HAL.
- Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 09050, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Dec 2009.
- Olivier Darne, 2008. "Using business survey in industrial and services sector to nowcast GDP growth:The French case," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(32), pages 1-8.
- Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
- Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
- Adonis Yatchew, 1998. "Nonparametric Regression Techniques in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 669-721, June.
- Diron, Marie, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 622, European Central Bank. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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