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Capturing Swiss economic confidence

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Wegmueller

    (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, Short Term Economic Analyses)

  • Christian Glocker

    (Austrian Institute of Research)

Abstract

Survey data can offer timely information on the current state of the economy and its short-term outlook. In this paper, we propose a “Swiss Economic Confidence Index” (SEC). This is a monthly indicator based on aggregating a selection of individual survey indicators, which we show to have favorable leading properties. Applying simple criteria, we select those surveys from a set of currently more than 250 sentiment indicators. We show that the SEC index provides useful signals on GDP growth in a number of real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercises.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Wegmueller & Christian Glocker, 2024. "Capturing Swiss economic confidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjecst:v:160:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1186_s41937-024-00120-7
    DOI: 10.1186/s41937-024-00120-7
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle index; Economic sentiment; Switzerland; Nowcasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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