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A direct measure of subjective business uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Glocker Christian
  • Hölzl Werner

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Arsenal Objekt 20, 1030 Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations. Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of respondents directly.

Suggested Citation

  • Glocker Christian & Hölzl Werner, 2022. "A direct measure of subjective business uncertainty," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 121-155, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:23:y:2022:i:1:p:121-155:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0025
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Werner Hölzl & Julia Bachtrögler-Unger & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Fourth COVID-19 Wave Dampens Economic Sentiment. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2022," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 4, February.
    2. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2024. "Business Cycle Sentiment Subdued at Start of the Year. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2024," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 3, February.
    3. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2023. "Heterogeneous Development of Economic Assessments. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of April 2023," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 9, June.
    4. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2023. "Economic Downturn Continues. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of October 2023," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 18, December.
    5. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2023. "Slight Improvement in Economic Sentiment at the Beginning of the Year. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2023," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 3, February.
    6. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Economic Expectations Weaken. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of July 2022," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 11, August.
    7. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Downturn Continues. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of October 2022," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 17, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Measuring uncertainty; Aggregate fluctuations; Firm dispersion; Surveys of expectations; Uncertainty persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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