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Robust Tests for White Noise and Cross-Correlation

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Abstract

Commonly used tests to assess evidence for the absence of autocorrelation in a univariate time series or serial cross-correlation between time series rely on procedures whose validity holds for i.i.d. data. When the series are not i.i.d., the size of correlogram and cumulative Ljung-Box tests can be significantly distorted. This paper adapts standard correlogram and portmanteau tests to accommodate hidden dependence and non-stationarities involving heteroskedasticity, thereby uncoupling these tests from limiting assumptions that reduce their applicability in empirical work. To enhance the Ljung-Box test for non-i.i.d. data a new cumulative test is introduced. Asymptotic size of these tests is una"ected by hidden dependence and heteroskedasticity in the series. Related extensions are provided for testing cross-correlation at various lags in bivariate time series. Tests for the i.i.d. property of a time series are also developed. An extensive Monte Carlo study confirms good performance in both size and power for the new tests. Applications to real data reveal that standard tests frequently produce spurious evidence of serial correlation.

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  • Violetta Dalla & Liudas Giraitis & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2019. "Robust Tests for White Noise and Cross-Correlation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2194, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2194r
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Serial correlation; Cross-correlation; Heteroskedasticity; Martingale differences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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