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Prognosekraft des ifo Konjunkturtests – Einfluss der neuen Saisonbereinigung mit X-13ARIMA-SEATS

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  • Steffen Henzel

Abstract

Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht, welchen Einfluss die Umstellung des Saisonbereinigungsverfahrens von dem ASA-II-Verfahren auf die X-13ARIMA-SEATS-Methode auf die Prognosekraft der ifo Indikatoren hat.

Suggested Citation

  • Steffen Henzel, 2015. "Prognosekraft des ifo Konjunkturtests – Einfluss der neuen Saisonbereinigung mit X-13ARIMA-SEATS," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(01), pages 59-63, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:01:p:59-63
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Die Saisonbereinigung im ifo Konjunkturtest – Umstellung auf das X-13ARIMA-SEATS-Verfahren," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(01), pages 32-42, January.
    2. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    3. Steffen Henzel & Sebastian Rast, 2013. "Prognoseeigenschaften von Indikatoren zur Vorhersage des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(17), pages 39-46, September.
    4. Flaig, Gebhard, 2003. "Seasonal and Cyclical Properties of Ifo Business Test Variables," Munich Reprints in Economics 20379, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    5. Flaig Gebhard, 2003. "Seasonal and Cyclical Properties of Ifo Business Test Variables / Saisonale und zyklische Eigenschaften von ifo Konjunkturtest Variablen," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 223(5), pages 556-570, October.
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Die Saisonbereinigung im ifo Konjunkturtest – Umstellung auf das X-13ARIMA-SEATS-Verfahren," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(01), pages 32-42, January.
    2. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88, July.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Klaus Abberger, 2015. "ifo Konjunkturampel revisited," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(05), pages 27-32, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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